OK, well with hours to go before the show, this obviously arrives later than I would have liked. I’d have gotten it out sooner if I didn’t like to write about thos shit so much that I feel the need to go into all the detail instead of just sending a friggin’ list. You may not even see this until after the ceremony is done, but at least the message is time-stamped so you’ll know that for better or for worse, these were my picks. Hope you all enjoy the show…
When the kudos season was set to kick off way way way back in November, I was already crafting a little essay about how we’d be seeing a repeat of 1996, when the dark, quirky Coen Brothers masterpiece Fargo went up against the romantic sweep of The English Patient. Critics favored Fargo; the industry swooned for The English Patient (though Fargo did score some big wins on Oscar night). I saw a similar scenario unfolding this year, with No Country for Old Men ultimately losing ground to Atonement. And frankly, Atonement deserved to be a much bigger player these last few months than it was. It deserves every nomination that it got, and several that it didn’t. Anyway, I never got around to writing that piece, and now I’ve had to eat my unwritten words. Atonement, despite Best Picture wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTA’s, is the film least likely to score a surprise win against far-out-in-front contender No Country.
Every year seems like the toughest, most wide-open year to make predictions, but the truth is that it always feels that way. A few categories are locks, a few are toss-ups, a few are wide open, and even the locks aren’t really safe. What distinguishes this year for me is that it boasts the strongest slate of movies the field has seen in some time. Every year has its share of films and performances that leave us complaining and cursing about how unworthy they are and how much better X is than Y. Not so this year. With maybe one or two exceptions, the nominees are so stellar that no matter what happens, almost every category will see something or someone deserving going home with an Oscar.
But enough of my preambling. Let me get to the actual rambling. Without further ado, my predictions for Oscar’s 80th…supported by tiresome pages of explanation that no one cares about but me.
BEST PICTURE
As I said, No Country for Old Men is way out in front here. Armed with enough critics awards and guild prizes to fill an entire wing of Casa de Coen, the film has lodged itself firmly in viewer’s psyches. Even criticism of its final scenes hasn’t been overwhelming enough to derail it. Can anything beat it?
There Will Be Blood is too divisive – this year’s love it or hate it nominee. And anyone who was disappointed by the ending of No Country will find no solace here. Atonement would have needed more support throughout the season, not to mention a Best Director nomination. I don’t understand what happened with this movie. It has all the ingredients, yet the spark never caught.
Which leaves Juno and Michael Clayton, each of which fit the profile for an upset. Juno has the feel-good factor, as well as the box office numbers. But good a film as it is, it doesn’t really have that Best Picture vibe. It has captured the affection of audiences young and old, but 20 years from now it won’t stand up to the idea of what a Best Picture winner should be. Sure, we could each say the same about other past winners of the big award, but I think in most of those cases the argument relies on the idea that there was a better choice; a more deserving winner. In this case, I think it’s less about Juno‘s inferiority and more about the movie not having the meat on its bones to deserve the top prize. And I think the Academy knows it.
Michael Clayton, on the other hand, has the right stuff. A sturdy production that captures the tone of the great 1970’s films; a star turn by a beloved Hollywood fixture, backed by strong supporting performances; a story that is both plot and character driven, and is challenging enough to make the audience work a bit, yet rewarding enough to make it worth their while. It satisfies where No Country confuses and disappoints. Unfortunately, it doesn’t have awards momentum. If anything could beat No Country, this is probably the one. And if enough older voters are turned off by the violence or esoteric ending of the Coens’ film, this is where their vote will likely go. But I doubt it will be enough. The Oscar goes to No Country for Old Men
Personal Pick: No Country for Old Men
BEST DIRECTOR
Like their movie, Joel and Ethan Coen are a force to be reckoned with this season. They have been expressing their unique vision for years, and are such impressive filmmakers that they’ve been embraced by a mainstream despite never being part of it. The industry loves them, respects them and wants to reward them.
The only question is how much rewarding will be done. The Coens could potentially win four awards for No Country – as producers, directors, writers, and editors (though it’s unclear how the latter would be handled, since they edit under the pseudonym Roderick Jaynes. The Academy has said that if the film wins, there will be only one statuette and it will be engraved with Jaynes’ name). It is possible that the Academy members will choose not to heap so much gold into the brothers’ skinny arms.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s skill can simply not be denied, but again There Will Be Blood is too divisive to garner him the necessary support. If I might paraphrase from a recent Best Picture winner, “A day may come when Paul Thomas Anderson will win a well-deserved Best Director Oscar, but it is not this day.”
Which again leaves Juno and Michael Clayton grouped together, in the form of Jason Reitman and Tony Gilroy, respectively. But these guys are lucky to be here. Their surprise nominations took spots that were arguably more deserved by the likes of Sean Penn, Joe Wright, Sidney Lumet, and Tim Burton. I mean to take nothing away from Reitman and Gilroy’s accomplishments. Movies do not direct themselves, and these guys captained their ships most impressively. But their films are first and foremost achievements in screenwriting, and I think voters will agree.
No, if anyone can steal it from the Coen Brothers, Julian Schnabel seems like the best bet. From everything I’ve read, no one seems to think that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly will go home empty-handed. Schnabel has been a sport throughout the season – humbled by his continued inclusion in the club, gracious in the spotlight and graceful in his odd confrontation with Sean Young at the DGA awards. His film definitely expresses a strong visual point of view, and it is known that he had to fight to make the film the way he wanted to make it. Audiences are moved by the film and admire it, so Schnabel could be the usurper here. On the other hand, he’s very much a film industry outsider, and the town tends to favor its own. So the Oscar goes to Joel Coen and Ethan Coen.
Personal Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson (in a tiny, tiny, marginal choice over the Coens)
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis owns this category just like he owned There Will Be Blood. His competition is admirable, but even they know this isn’t their year. In fact, they probably voted for Day-Lewis too.
Personal Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis
BEST ACTRESS
A very tough call. Weeding out the also-rans rids us of Cate Blanchett, who despite being outstanding in everything all the time, didn’t have as much to work with in Elizabeth: The Golden Age as she did in the first film (for which she should have won, sorry Gwyneth). Moving on, the Academy loves them some Laura Linney, but this isn’t her year.
This is a three way race between Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, and Ellen Page…with Christie out in front. Page is a bright new talent who anchors Juno with a strong, assured performance. In the absence of a Best Picture win, here’s a chance to give some big love to Juno. But fresh young actresses fare better in the supporting race than the lead, and a Best Actress win for Page is too much too soon.
So how to choose between Christie and Cotillard? Christie is the odds-on-favorite, having racked up the most pre-Oscar prizes, including a Golden Globe and a SAG award. And then there are all the elements that have nothing to do with her performance: she’s a screen legend who won this award in the 1960’s. She earns big points for sticking around and still showing the skills despite not working much anymore, and for still being beautiful and feisty.
Then there’s Cotillard, who out-transforms anything Michael Bay shat on screen in ’07. Her performance is a tour de force that sees her playing a gamut of emotions and ages. And she too has won a couple of key awards, namely the other Golden Globe and the BAFTA. If you judge on performance alone, how can it not be Cotillard? But there’s the problem: rarely are the nominees judged on performance alone. As an online pundit pointed out, Christie is helped by the fact that both Away From Her and La Vie En Rose are small movies that may not have been seen by many Academy members. This could prove an advantage to Christie because she is more likely to earn votes from people just because she’s Julie Christie, even if they haven’t seen the film. Cotillard doesn’t have that going for her. Still, I think people will have made a point to watch La Vie En Rose because of the acclaim the actress has garnered. And if enough people see her, I just don’t see how they can vote any other way. I know this is not the safe bet, but I’m going out on a limb and saying the Oscar goes to Marion Cotillard.
Personal Pick: Marion Cotillard
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
No need for a coin toss here. Casey Affleck is mesmerizing in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, one of the year’s finest films; Philip Seymour Hoffman is superb in Charlie Wilson’s War; and Tom Wilkinson is captivating in Michael Clayton. But none of them burn up the screen like Javier Bardem. Nor does Hal Holbrook, though he is of course the spoiler, being a respected veteran of stage and screen. He’s never been nominated, and this is a category that has often served as a way to honor career achievement. And in case there’s any doubt, Holbrook was beautifully touching in Into the Wild. But with so small a role in a movie that proved less popular with the Academy than expected, any chance he might have had to come from behind is slim. As No Country for Old Men takes its place in film history, Bardem is the one who will carry the flag. Every time there’s a picture of No Country in a magazine, or every time it shows up in some montage of Oscar-winning films, it is Javier Bardem’s face we’ll see. His performance is unique, chilling and strangely funny. Simply put, it’s a winner.
Personal Pick: Javier Bardem
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
When Amy Ryan started sweeping the critics prizes for her wrenching turn in Gone Baby Gone, I didn’t think her momentum would carry her to a win at the Kodak. This was mainly because she’s not enough of known quantity in Hollywood, which can work against a nominee unless the buzz around their performance is truly off the charts. But it turns out Ryan is still very much a front-runner in the most unpredictable category of the year.
The one performance that can be counted out is Saoirse Ronan’s in Atonement, though she was terrific in a tricky part. Tilda Swinton seemed like an also-ran through most of the season, but has picked up speed lately, and there are some who think she will win because, in a category with no overwhelming favorite, this will be voters’ best opportunity to honor Michael Clayton. But every time I’ve applied that logic when trying to predict a winner, it has failed. Besides, Swinton’s beautifully modulated performance is one of subtlety, which doesn’t necessarily catch voters’ eyes. Cate Blanchett once again proved how chameleonic she can be, doing a stunning, spot-on take of Don’t Look Back-era Bob Dylan in I’m Not There. No one can deny the effectiveness of the performance. The strikes against Blanchett are that some dismiss the role as merely stunt casting; the movie has apparently not been popular with Academy members (though the studio convinced director Todd Haynes to assemble a cut that focused solely on Blanchett’s Dylan, and then sent the DVD out with copies of Variety); and Blanchett won the award just a few years ago, for another take on a real-life celebrity. I think she she’s more deserving this year than she was then (I preferred Virginia Madsen in Sideways), but I’m not sure she can pull out the win.
A lot of people seem to be going with Ruby Dee, whose surprise SAG win is feeding the idea that this will be a career achievement award. Not just career, but life achievement. Dee is not only an admired veteran actress, but she was also a civil rights activist who accomplished many great things outside of show business. And after all this time, she has earned her first Oscar nomination, just a few years after the passing of her equally renowned husband Ossie Davis. Given all of that, I might be on her bandwagon too if it weren’t for one thing: her role in American Gangster is paper-thin. She has only a few scenes, and the most memorable thing she does is slap Denzel Washington in the face. Other actresses have won in this category with minimal screentime, but at least in those cases the roles had some meat to them – Beatrice Straight in Network and Judi Dench in Shakespeare in Love being the most prominent examples. But there is no such weight to Dee’s role, and I cannot allow myself to believe that the Academy members will give her the award just for career achievement; not when the role doesn’t have at least something substantial to it. If the Academy feels Dee deserves an honor for her career, they should give her an Honorary Oscar…which can join the many other lifetime achievement-type awards she has won from such organizations as the NAACP, the Screen Actors Guild and the Kennedy Center (all shared with Davis). But for this nothing little role, I can’t see it. I’m probably letting my own defiance stand in the way of my true belief that the Academy could very well give Dee this award, but I’m standing my ground.
Which brings me back to Amy Ryan. It’s been said that not enough people will see Gone Baby Gone to give Ryan a win, and she doesn’t have the history of a Julie Christie that would make people vote for her even if they haven’t seen it. But I’m guessing that all the acclaim she won will create curiosity amongst Academy members to see what all the fuss is about. And besides, plenty of actors have won the award even when they were their film’s only nomination – Kathy Bates, Forest Whitaker, Jessica Lange, Marisa Tomei, Jack Palance and Michael Douglas being among more recent examples
As I said, this is the toughest category of the year to call. It’s wide open, so I’m certainly not confident in my choice. But my guess is that the Oscar goes to Amy Ryan. And with all respect to Ruby Dee, I’ll be pissed if she wins.
Personal Pick: Tilda Swinton
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl) and Tamara Jenkins (The Savages) can sit back and enjoy the show without worrying about the stress of having to go up on stage. Ditto for two of Ratatouille’s nominees (the third, Brad Bird, well…we’ll get to him later). The only ones who need feel the pressure are Tony Gilroy and Diablo Cody. Both of their films are Best Picture nominees that are well liked across all Academy branches. Both films are, as discussed in the Best Director section, screenwriting achievements above all else. If voters really want to send Michael Clayton home with something, this is the place they should do it (actually, it’s the second place they should do, considering my own choice for Supporting Actress). Gilroy’s script is meticulous, taking ideas that we’ve seen in potboiler legal thrillers from the likes of John Grisham and stripping them down to their essence, to a place where they feel plausible and unsensationalized. The conundrum for voters is that this is also the best category in which to honor Juno. Cody’s script is packed with rich characters, sharp humor and a sweetness that isn’t cloying. And screenwriting is the safe category to honor comedies, which might be deemed not “important” enough for Best Picture. Just as Little Miss Sunshine took this prize last year, I’m sure this year the Oscar goes to Juno. Will Diablo Cody be the first ex-stripper to win an Oscar, or does Judi Dench have some skeletons in her closet?
Personal Pick: Michael Clayton
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Once again, Atonement’s lack of broader support will keep it from a victory in a major category like this one. Sarah Polley (Away From Her) can hang with fellow femme writing nominees Jenkins and Oliver in the no-pressure zone. It will be nice to see Polley at the Oscars however, since she arguably should have won Best Supporting Actress 10 years ago for The Sweet Hereafter (she wasn’t even nominated). Ronald Harwood has a shot here for Diving Bell, since he faced the challenge of a protagonist who could not move or interact and who would barely even appear on camera. If voters want to honor Diving Bell and/or not go Coen Crazy, Harwood could be the surprise winner (something at which he has practice, having upset The Hours and Adaptation in 2002 when he won for The Pianist).
Members also have another chance to honor Paul Thomas Anderson’s personal achievement, and There Will Be Blood is a notable adaptation because of Anderson’s ability to successfully combine elements from the source material with his own original ideas to create something cohesive and extraordinary. But alas, Anderson will likely lose out three times to Joel and Ethan, who have all the momentum, not to mention a legitimate claim to the prize. This race is not immune to a surprise, but I think the Oscar will go to Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country.
Personal Pick: No Country for Old Men
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Surf’s Up is fun and clever, with some genuinely great animation. And Persepolis is visually distinct and powerful, but also depressing – even more so than you’d think for a movie about a girl growing up first under the Shah, then the Taliban. There are more than enough dark themes in the various live-action nominees. When it comes to animation, the Academy will want something more pleasing – like a movie about a rat-infested kitchen. Pixar should just go ahead and change its name to OSCAR WINNERS, INC. Not that they’ve won every time they’ve been nominated, but there is something in the air over there that leads them to do consistently outstanding work. In fact, the Academy should just shave a few minutes off next year’s show by handing Pixar the 2008 award for Wall-E now. Either way, Ratatouille sets Brad Bird up for his second Oscar.
Personal Pick: Ratatouille
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Poor Roger Deakins. He will likely go home Oscarless again this year, with nothing to put on the mantle that also remains Oscarless but which should hold trophies for The Shawshank Redemption, Kundun and The Man Who Wasn’t There. His win this year should come for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, but he’s unlikely to get it for a film that wasn’t more popular. Overall momentum for No Country could conceivably bring him a win for that film, but I don’t think anyone considers that the strongest work in the category, or even among the strongest of his career.
The critics and the cinematographer’s guild favored Robert Elswit’s camerawork in There Will Be Blood, but I feel like members often want to give this award to work that is more “beautiful” and visually rich than what TWBB requires. Atonement fits that bill, and lest you think that this nomination just represents the much-talked about tracking shot at the beach in Dunkirk, make no mistake: Seamus McGarvey’s work throughout the film is masterful, with particularly exquisite play between light and shadows. Just watch the scene in which Briony slowly enters the library and makes her fateful discovery. Wow.
In the end though, here is the place where Diving Bell may stand its best chance. I admit that I’m partly basing this on my online reading, where as I said earlier, various sources seem certain that voters will not send the film home empty-handed. But the odds are very good regardless of this theory. Janusz Kaminski’s photography is the key to the viewer’s identification with the main character, by placing us firmly with his perspective. It’s highly effective, enough so to give Kaminski his third Oscar after Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan.
Personal Pick: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Atonement
BEST FILM EDITING
First off, I have to mention the shocking omission of Atonement. The way that film is edited is essential to the story being told so effectively and creatively, and were it here, it would easily be my personal choice and possibly my prediction for the win. I’m not sure I’ll ever understand how it was left off the list. But it was, so what are our options? Into the Wild and Diving Bell don’t have much of a prayer here. Nor does There Will Be Blood, which hasn’t generated as much talk about its editing as it has for its cinematography and production design. A win for No Country potentially gives the Coens their fourth win of the night (that little Roderick Jaynes hiccup notwithstanding), and from what I can tell, the film’s editing was tight and effective. It’s competition comes from editor’s guild winner The Bourne Ultimatum, where the work is less subtle, more bravura. Both editing jobs help build immense tension. The award tends to go to a film that is at least nominated for Best Picture, but there have been exceptions, such as The Matrix, Black Hawk Down and Who Framed Roger Rabbit. It’s easy to see this going either way. It may come down to whether voters want to share the wealth a bit, or shower the Coens with praise. Unlike the Supporting Actor race, here we could use an Anton Chigurh-style coin toss. I’m giving the edge to The Bourne Ultimatum, but I would love to see Roderick Jaynes take it home.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Sitting this one out will be American Gangster and The Golden Compass. This category is always a difficult call, because the voters sway between a preference for historical recreations and an appreciation of more stylized fantasy worlds. Given that, Atonement and There Will Be Blood each have a shot, and of the two I’d give the edge to the latter for the challenge and visual effectiveness of the oil derricks. But Sweeney Todd offers voters the best of both worlds – period London with a Tim Burton twist. That combo led Sleepy Hollow to a win in 1999, and as long as voters don’t feel they’re repeating themselves (which none of them likely will, with the exception of other art directors) the formula should prove successful again.
Personal Pick: Sweeney Todd
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
This category follows the same rules as Art Direction, and I think it will go the same way. Across the Universe and La Vie En Rose are filler, and while I don’t think Elizabeth: The Golden Age will win, the costumes are lavish and plentiful, so it has a shot. Atonement is a strong contender, largely for Kiera’s green dress, which has drawn a lot of attention and may be the single most striking piece of costuming in the category. But is it enough to carry the rest of the film’s work, which is excellent but less flashy? There’s definitely potential there, but once again I’m going with Sweeney Todd.
Personal Pick: Sweeney Todd
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
It’s been a while since I’ve seen some of these nominees, so I can’t recall how effective all their scores were in the context of their films, but I doubt any of them were as strong as Dario Marianelli’s fantastic contribution to Atonement. It’s the only score that stayed with me afterwards, and the only one that seemed like part of the very fabric of the film. The Kite Runner score may have its admirers, but I have to think voters with go with Atonement.
Personal Pick: Atonement
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
I’m dismissing the song from August Rush outright. The movie looked excessively sentimental, and I’m sure the song only reinforces that. Enchanted dominates the category with three nominations, and though I haven’t seen the movie, I’m guessing the songs are all solid for what they are. The movie looked like a clever parody of the Disney formula, and the songwriters are the same ones who wrote for some of Disney’s 90’s cartoons, so the match makes sense. One of these could push through. But I think voters will go with the lovely “Falling Slowly” from Once. It’s a simple, sweet song that is used twice in the movie, each time to great effect, and the movie’s humble origins only add to people’s affection for it. The one silver lining of Eddie Vedder getting shafted for all of his excellent songs from Into the Wild is that his absence should clear the way for “Falling Slowly” to take home the gold.
Personal Pick: Falling Slowly, from Once
BEST MAKE-UP
It may have the most drastic, transformative make-up of the lot, but it’s hard to imagine anyone in the Academy wanting to hear, “And the Oscar goes to…Norbit.” As for Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, there’s certainly a lot of make-up – hordes of pirates with wigs and mustaches and grime. But the best make-up in the film isn’t make-up at all, as my friends at ILM can tall you. So I think the Academy will go with La Vie En Rose, which features some of the finest aging make-up I’ve ever seen, and which helped contribute to Marion Cotillard’s disappearing act.
Personal Pick: La Vie En Rose
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The work in The Golden Compass looked nice, but there was no new ground broken, and nothing that made the jaw drop. Pirates of the Caribbean had some excellent work, but with the second film having just won last year, this may be looked at as more of the same. So if the voters are in their right mind, they’ll look past the fact that Transformers was the very definition of a bloated summer action film, and focus on the amazing work that made giant metal robots a reality.
Personal Pick: Transformers
BEST SOUND MIXING
As usual, what do I, or anybody in the Academy other than members of the Sound branch, know about either of the sound awards? I’m going with Transformers here because much has been made of the fact that one of the nominees, Kevin O’Connell, has been nominated 19 times and never won. I feel like I’ve been seeing that point come up quite a bit. I’m not sure if it’s been coming up around the industry, or if I’ve just seen it on Oscar-themed websites, but given that Transformers seemed to have good sound work and that the dude has never won, I’ll go ahead and say his losing streak ends here.
Personal Pick: What do I know?
BEST SOUND EDITING
Again, what do I know? No Country has a shot, because sometimes one of the sound awards does go to a movie that isn’t necessarily an action-oriented noisefest, plus the sound work in the film did contribute to the tension. But the same thinking applies to There Will Be Blood, and maybe honoring that for sound work allows voters to indirectly pay tribute to the film’s inventive but ineligible music score. So I really don’t know, but I guess I’ll go with There Will Be Blood.
Personal Pick: Again, what do I know?
And finally, the remaining categories, none of which I know much about. I’m just making guesses based on what I’ve heard and read:
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – 4 Months, 3 Weeks….oh wait, I mean The Counterfeiters
BEST DOCUMENTARY – No End in Sight
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT – Sari’s Mother
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT – At Night
BEST ANIMATED SHORT – Madame Tutli-Putli
I Am DB 