I Am DB

Well as usual, I couldn’t resist getting my Oscar thoughts down in the long, rambling, insufferable fashion you’ve all come to expect. So straight from my desktop to your Deleted Items folder, here are my predictions for tomorrow’s Academy Awards. Lots of races this year without a frontrunner, which makes winning the pool hard, but will at least lend some suspense to the show. So without further ado….

BEST PICTURE
Let’s go by process of probable elimination. Letters From Iwo Jima, while a powerful, beautiful film, lacks broad support and hasn’t generated the kind of momentum that Clint Eastwood saw in 2004 when Million Dollar Baby came out late in the year and kept bowling people over well into February. And the fact that Clint’s movie won two years ago makes him less likely to triumph here. The Queen was one of the best reviewed films of the year – possibly the best, depending on what list you look at – but while it clearly has much support, it still seems to be looked upon as a bit flat to be named the year’s best. It could have worked just as well as an HBO movie. And Babel, although it has seven nominations and won the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture, is apparently incredibly divisive. For everyone who loves it and finds it profoundly moving, there seems to be someone who hates it and finds it contrived and overwrought. I think those who like it probably outnumber those who don’t, but there may not be enough yay votes to earn it a win.

Which leaves Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed, neither of which seem like the winning type. The last time a comedy won Best Picture was 1977 – Annie Hall. Although Sunshine won the Producer’s Guild Award, that has never been a reliable prognosticator for the Oscars. Some point to its win for Best Ensemble from the Screen Actor’s Guild as the sure sign that it will take Best Picture, citing Crash’s similar win at SAG. But it makes sense that both Crash and Little Miss Sunshine would win SAG’s Best Ensemble award. Each film received much attention for its ensemble nature and bevy of strong performances. I’ve never understood why people around the industry seem to think that just because Best Ensemble is SAG’s equivalent of a Best Picture award, the Oscars will automatically follow suit. In the 11 years the SAG has given an ensemble award, only five winners of that award have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars (Shakespeare in Love, American Beauty, Chicago, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and Crash). If Little Miss Sunshine joins that list, one will have nothing to do with the other. Best Ensemble and Best Picture simply do not equate.

Here’s why Little Miss Sunshine has a greater shot at the Oscar than I ever would have thought possible: a) People simply love the movie, and still seem to be loving it even all this time after its summer release; b) With world events being as chaotic as they are these days, the time may be right to honor a sweet, feel-good comedy with the year’s top film award. And while normally I would suggest that a movie’s Best Picture chances are seriously harmed by the lack of a Best Director nomination, no one really seems to care in this case. The last time a movie won for Best Picture without a nomination for its director was in 1989, for Driving Miss Daisy. So it’s been a while, but there is a precedent.

Now for The Departed. It’s true that violence – especially of the Scorsesean nature – has often turned off the Academy. Moreover, with Scorsese himself having emerged, crazy as it seems after all these years of being overlooked, as the frontrunner in the Best Director race, some may feel that a win for him would take care of The Departed. Then again, there have been so many splits between Picture and Director in the last decade that its easy to forget that traditionally, the two awards have gone hand in hand.

I think it’s safe to say that, along with Little Miss Sunshine, The Departed is the most entertaining of the Picture nominees. Whatever you can say about Iwo Jima, The Queen, and Babel, they aren’t exactly crowd-pleasers. The Departed, despite its violence and body count, is gripping from start to finish, as its great success both with critics and audiences attests. On the negative side, there seems to be a fair number of people who feel that The Departed, while enjoyable, is too reminiscent of Scorsese’s masterpieces without being quite one of them.

I really don’t know which way it will go in the end. I think that while people may love Little Miss Sunshine, they might also deem it too slight and light to go down in history as Best Picture, which leaves The Departed almost by default. But then I keep coming back to how much people Little Miss Sunshine. It could go either way, and on Oscar day I may wind up filling my ballot out the other way, but for the moment, I’m giving the tiniest edge to Little Miss Sunshine.

Personal Pick: The Departed was easily my favorite film of the year.

BEST DIRECTOR
I think the easiest to eliminate is Paul Greengrass for United 93. It’s nice that he was nominated, as he took extremely sensitive material and handled it with grace and skill. But there may be many Academy members who just couldn’t bring themselves to watch the movie, and the fact that it doesn’t have a Best Picture nomination probably seals its fate. Stephen Frears did a fine job with The Queen, but again, it isn’t exactly a showcase of directorial flair. And just as Babel’s divisive nature will harm its Best Picture chances, so too will it sideline the talented Alejenadro Gonzalez Inarritu. Which leaves us with a repeat of 2004’s showdown – Eastwood vs. Scorsese. Eastwood’s chances are helped by the fact that he made two impressive movies telling flip sides of the same subject, in both cases further demonstrating his sensitivity and versatility as a filmmaker. But having won two years ago while Scorsese has famously never won, it’s difficult to justify handing Clint his third directing Oscar for a film that hasn’t generated deafening buzz. And so it would seem that for the first time, Martin Scorsese is poised as an almost sure thing. True, there could be an upset here. While many feel that Scorsese is due, there are those who think the film pales next to his truly great achievements. But armed with a slew of critics’ awards, a Golden Globe and the Director’s Guild of America award, it finally looks like Marty’s year. Hallelujah!

Personal Pick: Martin Scorsese. Not because he’s overdue and it’s time, but because he made the best movie of the year, and made it a showcase for his skills while still highlighting the great acting, writing and editing. It may not hit the level of artistry of Raging Bull, Taxi Driver or GoodFellas, but really, so what?

BEST ACTOR
First of all, I’ll never get over Leonardo DiCaprio getting nominated for Blood Diamond rather than The Departed. Don’t get me wrong – he was very good in Blood Diamond; excellent, even. But it doesn’t touch his work in The Departed. He burrows so deep into his undercover cop character and creates an astounding performance free of histrionics, of big gestures, of big “actorly” moments. His performance was one of subtlety, of a man losing himself but keeping it just below the surface. As I said when the nominations were announced, for Blood Diamond he’s an also-ran; for The Departed, he coulda been a contender.

It’s great to see Ryan Gosling here, for another subtle performance, and one much less available than Leo’s work. People had to go looking for Half Nelson, but thanks to strong praise from critics, look they did, and they found one of the most buzzed-about young actors in the business doing sensational work. But for him, the nomination is all the reward he’ll get. Ditto for Will Smith, an immensely likable and appealing actor who stepped away from his action-comedies to show us a more human story. His performance is full of warmth and grace, but that won’t be enough.

The contest comes down to Forest Whitaker and Peter O’Toole. The fact is that this wouldn’t be contest at all if Peter O’Toole weren’t Peter O’Toole. He’s a threat to Whitaker only because he is a screen legend who has been nominated for Best Actor seven previous times and never won. He’s Lawrence of Arabia, for chrissakes! People love him, and are happy to see him still in the game. Judging the performance on its own merits, it’s lovely work for sure. O’Toole still has a twinkle in his eye and he makes his lecherous character almost not-creepy. Almost. It’s a terrific twilight performance, but it doesn’t amaze.

Forest Whitaker, on the other hand, amazes. His performance in The Last King of Scotland is unlike anything I’ve ever seen him do, and this is a guy who has been around since Fast Times at Ridgemont High. He’s consistently been a strong, reliable character actor and now he is enjoying a wave of acclaim and attention such as he’s never received before, not even for Bird. It’s deserved, and so is a win.

Other than a possible desire among Academy members to finally give Peter O’Toole a win, there is one other factor that could hurt Whitaker. It’s shallow and stupid, but it needs to be acknowledged. Oscar voters love a good speech. They like to be entertained. I’m convinced that the only reason Roberto Benigni won Best Actor for Life is Beautiful is because people wanted to see him up there acting like a buffoon and making them laugh in his crazy Italian-accented English. I’m also convinced that Jamie Foxx’s win for Ray was, partially (and only a small part, but still…) due to a series of acceptance speeches throughout the award season that were both hilarious and also genuinely moving. Whitaker has won almost every award possible leading up to the Oscars, and each time he’s ascended the podium, he’s delivered a rambling, mumbled, inarticulate speech riddled with long silences. It’s been very strange. And I guarantee you there are some people who will not vote for him because they won’t want to hear him give another such speech. I doubt it will be widespread enough to hurt his chances, and obviously it shouldn’t matter at all, but even things like this affect voters’ decision. If enough people let this impact theirs, Whitaker’s winning streak could come to and end on Oscar night.

But I doubt it.

Personal Pick: Forest Whitaker

BEST ACTRESS
The Oscar goes to Helen Mirren, no analysis necessary.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Eddie Murphy remains the front-runner for Dreamgirls, and while he would seem like a lock, having won most of the key awards leading up to this, I think he’s vulnerable. First, Dreamgirls buzz feels like it’s waned considerably. I’m not hanging out with many Academy members, so maybe I’m wrong, but nobody really seems to be talking about the movie anymore. And the fact that it lost out on widely expected nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, suggests that maybe not enough people – or not enough of the right people – were talking about it much in the first place. Then there’s the fact that Murphy is a bit of a polarizing figure in the industry. Some like him and have great respect for him; others find him cold and difficult. He’s been around for a long time, and he hasn’t made friends with everybody he’s done business with. On the other hand, I think his days of being difficult are reasonably far behind him, and his work in Dreamgirls has generated him considerable goodwill. Personally, while I loved his performance and am pleased to see him nominated, I felt that the role needed one or two more meaty scenes for him to really sink his teeth into to make it worthy of an Oscar win. The part as written was a little thinner than I’d hoped. But I suppose that’s irrelevant for the purposes of predictions.

So if not Murphy, then who? Alan Arkin and Mark Wahlberg seem like the likeliest bets. This is Arkin’s third nomination, and people’s affection for the movie and respect for him could combine to bring him home. A win for him would be like a career tribute (see previous Supporting Actor winners like John Gielgud, Don Ameche, Jack Palance, and James Coburn). As for Wahlberg, he is, shockingly, the only acting nomination for The Departed. And people rave about his brutal, foul-mouthed cop. No one calls it a stretch, but the consensus is just that he fully inhabits the character and delivers a performance that people love to watch.

Jackie Earle Haley had a great comeback story in his favor, but not enough people have seen Little Children. Although it did manage to get three top nominations, I think the studio mishandled everything about it, which is a shame. It’s a very good film. Anyway, I think Haley’s comeback is honored with the nomination, and if the acclaim and award attention re-launches his career, as I truly hope it does, than that will be his reward. The final contender, Djimon Hounsou, brings gravitas to his part in Blood Diamond, but the momentum isn’t there.

As of now, I’m still betting on Murphy, but I’m leaning more and more toward Arkin, and have a feeling that when the moment of truth comes and I need to make a choice, it’s gonna be him.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
If the Best Supporting Actor award is often used to salute a long career, the Supporting Actress award tends to favor ingénues or up-and comers, (see Anna Paquin, Mira Sorvino, and Angelina Jolie). That could be good news for Jennifer Hudson, who, like her Supporting Actor co-star, is still the front-runner. But also like her co-star, I think she’s vulnerable. She wouldn’t seem so, having won probably as many other awards as Helen Mirren, but unlike the queen, Hudson is on rockier ground in my eyes. First, there is the aforementioned lack of buzz, it seems to me, for Dreamgirls. Second, although no other group has much cared that this is the first acting gig for someone who is only known otherwise for being on “American Idol,” I think it’s conceivable that the Academy could care. I could see a lot of these people having reservations about handing over an Oscar – an Oscar – to a first time actress who, while she undoubtedly has skills, hasn’t paid her dues and may be thought of as a charismatic singer who just got lucky. I’m not saying I feel that way, or that anybody actually does, but I think it’s possible. Being a first time actress shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance in this case, since several of her fellow nominees are also in young careers. I don’t know if Babel is Rinko Kikuchi’s first movie, but it’s gotta be close. Abigail Breslin has a short list of credits, and although I think Adrianna Barraza has been around for a while, it’s safe to say that most voters don’t know who she is, so she might as well be a new face. So the only veteran is Cate Blanchett, and though she is excellent in Notes on a Scandal (hell, when is she not excellent?), her win two years ago The Aviator hurts her chances.

So who else besides Hudson has a shot? The Oscars have smiled on child actresses in the past, and considering that Breslin is the pure heart of Little Miss Sunshine, voters could pick her for being so damn cute. Of the two Babel actresses, I’d guess that Kikuchi will score more votes, but maybe not enough. I’m sticking with Hudson as my prediction…for now, anyway. But let it be said that I think both Supporting categories provide fertile ground for an upset, and here, my sense is that it could be Little Miss Sunshine herself who steals the thunder.

Personal Pick: Rinko Kikuchi. I wasn’t passionate about any of these performances, and its ironic that I pick Kikuchi given that most of my problems with Babel center on her storyline. But none of my problems have anything to do with her. She was damn good, naked or not.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I think we can definitely scratch Letters From Iwo Jima, and while Babel is a serious contender in other categories, it will miss out in this one. Pan’s Labyrinth could pull Gods and Monsters-type upset, but that’s unlikely. So it’s The Queen or Little Miss Sunshine. The many critics awards were generally split down the line with these two, and without doing an exact count, I The Queen probably came out the victor. But on Oscar night, I believe the Academy will go with the one that makes them feel good. That sentiment might help Little Miss Sunshine win Best Picture, but I think it will definitely help it win here.

Personal Pick: Pan’s Labyrinth. The category says Best Original Screenplay. I didn’t see anything more original all year.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Like I said earlier, Oscar voters love a good speech. Anything to provide some laughs during that long, long show. After Sacha Baron Cohen’s hilarious speech at the Golden Globes, it’s conceivable that voters will pick Borat just to see Cohen on stage again. Conceivable, but not likely. And while I loved the movie, I don’t think it should be here in the first place. When there’s that much improvisation going on, how much of a script is really there? I’m glad Children of Men made the cut, but I don’t see it winning, especially with five credited writers (also a problem for Borat). Little Children was probably too little seen, Notes on a Scandal, while sharp, doesn’t feel like a winner. So it goes to The Departed. Yes, it’s a remake, but by all accounts, William Monahan added his own flavoring to the source material and created an authentic-feeling movie that was suspenseful, funny, powerful, and exciting. And he nailed the Boston vibe.

Personal Pick: The Departed

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Tough to call. The critics heavily favored Happy Feet, but the Producer’s Guild and the Golden Globes went with Cars. Monster House is safely out of the race, but with these other two, I just don’t know. My gut tells me Cars, but I’m not particularly confident.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Anything could happen, but An Inconvenient Truth is the most widely talked about of the bunch, it’s he biggest hit of the bunch, and you gotta figure that after Al Gore “lost” the 2000 election, liberal Hollywood isn’t going to want him to lose again.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Pan’s Labyrinth is definitely the favorite, and with an impressive six nominations, it clearly has widespread support in the Academy. But these facts were also true of Amelie back in 2001, and the win went to another film. I don’t think that will be the case this time, as the praise for Pan’s has really been phenomenal. But if there’s going to be an upset, it will be The Lives of Others.

Personal Pick: Pan’s Labyrinth, though it’s the only one I’ve seen.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Can I just ask first, how in God’s name is Marie Antoinette not nominated in this category? Talk about an oversight. The Good Shepherd gets an art direction nomination while Marie Antoinette sits the race out? In a hundred years I’ll never wrap my brain around that one. As for the race at hand, when there’s a musical in the running, it tends to win the day. So in the tradition of Moulin Rouge and Chicago, I figure Dreamgirls is probably sitting pretty. But if the voters are feeling a bit more edgy, Pan’s Labyrinth looked awfully good.

Personal Pick: Pan’s Labyrinth

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Queen? Seriously? Can’t say that makes sense to me. Elizabeth II isn’t exactly a fashion trendsetter. Once again, the razzle dazzle of Dreamgirls’ garb would keep with recent tradition, so that’s my guess. But Marie Antoinette extravagant and exquisite frocks may be hard to ignore…if enough people saw them.

Personal Pick: Marie Antoinette

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Children of Men has definitely collected the most awards for this field so far, so it’s safe to say that it will win the Oscar as well. Without any Best Pictures nominees represented here to give it some competition, I’d say the likeliest candidate for an upset is Pan’s Labyrinth.

Personal Pick: Children of Men

BEST FILM EDITING
This is a tough one. I always preface this by saying that I can rarely recognize all the ways that great editing can be on display. But neither can most Academy members who aren’t editors. So they tend to vote for the movie that is the most obviously-edited, such as one that has multiple storylines intercutting. Hence, recent winners have included Crash and Traffic. By that rationale, Babel stands the best shot. On the other hand, The Departed is also very skillfully edited, and its excellent editing is easy to see, without being too obvious. If you watch the way certain scenes will fold out and then back in on themselves, it’s deceptively simple. So which will it be? The Editor’s guild doesn’t offer any help, since Babel and The Departed tied for the award last weekend. Scorsese’s editor, Thelma Schoonmaker, won this award two years ago for The Aviator. Although The Departed is more deserving, will the recent win hurt her chances? And I haven’t even mentioned United 93, which has also been praised for its construction and tension. I’m thinking it will be overlooked, since again, there isn’t much widespread support for the movie and many members may not have even seen it. This is another one where I may change my final prediction at the last minute, but at press time, I’m going with Babel.

Personal Pick: The Departed. Babel is well-done, no question, but I think it could have done with some trimming, and I also think the cutting between story lines is clean and simple. The Departed strikes me as more interesting and inventive in its editing. Things that could have been presented in a completely straightforward manner are tweaked and twisted, which helps give the film its intensity.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
A weak category this year, and it’s especially annoying that three of the nominations belong to Dreamgirls, considering that none of the songs in the movie are particularly memorable – unlike when Beauty and the Beast got three song nominations but actually deserved each of them (and probably the other two slots as well.) Unless the Dreamgirls tunes cancel each other out, the likely winner is “Listen,” which seems to be the song that gets singled out from the bunch.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Thomas Newman did a great job with The Good German, musically capturing the style of those 40’s black and white melodramas as successfully as Steven Soderbergh captured it visually. Newman has never won an Oscar, and he should have an armful of them by now (for The Shawshank Redemption, American Beauty, and Road to Perdition, in my eyes). Alas, this is not his year. Philip Glass’s score for Notes on a Scandal has a shot, but a lot of people feel Glass’ scores are too relentless and overpowering. The Queen has good buzz here too, but how memorable is the score? I think it will come down to another battle of the Mexicans: Gustavo Santaolalla could win his second consecutive award, after Brokeback Mountain, for Babel; or Javier Navarrete Pan’s Labyrinth. Tough call, but I’m going with Pan’s Labyrinth, thanks to its haunting, melodic theme.

Personal Pick: Pan’s Labyrinth

BEST SOUND MIXING
This award often goes to music films, like Ray and Chicago, which could bode well for Dreamgirls. But it doesn’t always go to music films; Walk the Line lost last year to King Kong. Since this is another category where a lot of the voters probably don’t understand what they’re voting for, I tend to think they’ll go with something popular which they may have seen, or something obvious – like a musical. I’m as ignorant about this stuff as anybody, so this category is always a shot in the dark for me, but I’m passing over Dreamgirls to guess Pirates of the Caribbean will get the treasure. I’m also not discounting Blood Diamond.

BEST SOUND EDITING
This is even more of a mystery than Sound Mixing. Or wait…maybe I’ve got it backwards. Oh Hell, I don’t know. This category is even tougher this year because there are five nominees, instead of the usual three. Since I don’t know any better and am acting on instinct, I’m going with Pirates again.

BEST MAKE-UP
I’m guessing that not enough people saw Apocalypto or Click for them to win. I’m also guessing the make-up in those films isn’t as impressive as the work in Pan’s Labyrinth.

Personal Pick: Pan’s Labyrinth

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dare I even say it? ILM dominated the scene all through the 80’s and into the mid-90’s. Then, after winning for Forrest Gump in 1994, the well dried up and ILM has suffered a drought ever since. But the pendulum seems poised to swing back now, cause really….how can Pirates not win? There have been some years since 1994 when ILM deserved to win (1996, 2000), some years when it didn’t (1998, 2002), and some years when it’s been debatable (1999, 2001). This year, it’s not debatable. ILM hasn’t deserved the prize this much since Jurassic Park, and if Pirates isn’t rewarded, it will be not only a major slap in the face, but an Oscar mistake for the record books.

Personal Pick: Isn’t it clear?

BEST ANIMATED SHORT; LIVE ACTION SHORT; DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Last year I got to see the animated and live action nominees, and while I had the chance this year as well, I didn’t get there in time. So I know almost nothing about any of these films. After looking at all the titles and the predictions in Premiere and Entertainment Weekly, I’m basically throwing a dart and picking The Little Match Girl for Animated; Eramos Pocos for Live Action; and The Blood of the Yingzhou District for Documentary.

The most surprising thing about the Oscar nominations this year was how unsurprising they were. With most of the critics groups having already named their choices for year’s best, not to mention the Golden Globes being handed out and the various guilds announcing their nominees, nothing much that happened on the morning of January 31^st was unexpected. And just as the list of contenders in each category seemed easy to predict, so do most of the winners. Philip Seymour Hoffman has won almost every award possible on the road to the Oscars. How can we not expect him to win that one too? I’ve watched all the awards that have been televised this year – the Globes, the Critic’s Choice, the Screen Actor’s Guild, the British Academy…and at each one, Heath Ledger and David Strathairn have had to sit, smile and clap when Hoffman’s name is called (at least Joaquin Phoenix got a little love at the Golden Globes, thanks to their separation of dramas and musicals/comedies…though classifying Walk the Line as the latter just because it’s about a musician is rather moronic).

My point is that most of the winners for the top categories have seemed set in stone for at least a month. If any of those frontrunners don’t win, I’ll actually feel bad for them since the expectations have been so high. I’m torn between wanting to see some surprise winners just to shake things up a bit and wanting the expected wins to come through so no one will sit there looking stunned that they won every other award under the sun but then lost the Oscar. This year, the Supporting categories seem like the least pre-determined, so here’s hoping the surprise factor will kick in with one or both of those. Still, as sorry as I’d feel for Philip Seymour Hoffman not winning Best Actor, wouldn’t it be great to see a stunned Heath Ledger ascend the stage? Remember Adrien Brody’s surprise victory in 2002 over favorites Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York)?  Deserved or not, Brody’s triumph was a great Oscar moment even before he sexually violated Halle Berry.

So then, here is my obnoxiously detailed take on this year’s Oscars, category by category. I’ll cap it off with my personal list of what would have been nominated if it were entirely up to me. This is really just a selfish exercise for me. But I’m a selfish guy, so here we go.

BEST PICTURE/BEST DIRECTOR
One of the few surprises that did emerge in this year’s nominations was that the Best Director nominees all matched up to the Best Picture nominees. There are almost always one or two discrepancies. Likewise, the Best Director nominees were the same as the five Director’s Guild nominees, another rare occurrence. When people were asking me a month ago what I thought would win Best Picture, my answer was that there would have to be a major shift in the winds for Brokeback Mountain not to win Picture and Director. With the awards now a few days away, I don’t think the winds have shifted that much. A win for Brokeback Mountain in both categories seems inevitable. There are some rumblings out there that Crash could upset Brokeback in the Picture race, but I’m not convinced. As successful as Crash has been, it hasn’t captured the zeitgeist like Brokeback Mountain, nor is it as tight a film. A win for Crash wouldn’t be out of left field, but my money is on Brokeback. And either way, it would be foolish to bet against Ang Lee for Best Director. He won the Director’s Guild award, and the winner of that almost always goes on to win the Oscar. As it happens, Lee himself is one of the exceptions to that rule: he won the DGA award for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon but lost the Oscar to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic (Lee did take home the prize for Foreign Language film, however.) Lee shouldn’t worry about history repeating itself.

BEST ACTOR
The strongest category of the year. As always, there were a lot of worthy performances that didn’t make the cut, but you can’t argue with any of the five choices here. I was really pleased that Terrence Howard’s amazing work in Hustle & Flow was recognized. I was afraid the film might be too small and too “urban” to reach the necessary number of Academy members, but they supported the film with multiple nominations. Howard is a veteran actor who had a breakthrough year with additional roles in Crash (which easily could have earned him a Supporting Actor nod to go with this one), Get Rich or Die Tryin’ and Four Kings, plus the high profile TV films Their Eyes Were Watching God and Lackawanna Blues. And last year he was in Ray. Not a bad run. It’s great to see him get such high profile recognition, and a look at upcoming movies reveals that he’s now highly in demand.

David Strathairn is one of the best character actors around, while he’s been more visible to audiences than Terrence Howard, it’s still great to see him get his first Oscar nomination after a long career of eclectic performances. Joaquin Phoenix was uncanny as Johnny Cash, but this just isn’t his year at the Oscars. The big stories are Heath Ledger and Philip Seymour Hoffman. Ledger was the true revelation. Even his somber, subtle work in Monster’s Ball didn’t indicate he had a performance in him like the one he delivers in Brokeback. If he does somehow beat Hoffman, you can’t really argue against him. His performance is amazingly internalized, and relies so much on body language and silences that he almost doesn’t even require what little dialogue he has. If you haven’t seen this movie, whatever your reasons may be, Ledger’s performance is reason enough to go. It’s a truly astounding piece of acting.

Unfortunately it probably won’t trump Philip Seymour Hoffman’s equally stunning work in Capote. Nobody was surprised that Hoffman, the third great veteran character actor in this category enjoying his first nomination, could deliver such an amazing performance. But the degree to which the hefty, deep-voiced actor transformed into the slight, fey writer is enormously impressive. That, combined with the depth to which he explores the character, makes his performance a revelation on two levels. As I said earlier, there’s barely an award Hoffman could have won for this film that he didn’t. It’s hard to imagine he won’t cap it all off with the Oscar.

BEST ACTRESS
Although it’s been said that 2005 was a weak year for actresses, I thought there were several worthy performances, some of which deserved to be in this category over others which actually made it. Judi Dench and Charlize Theron both did really good work, but I don’t think either one necessarily merited awards. Ditto for Kiera Knightley, although she would only have just missed my cut.  And honestly, I really can’t complain about any excuse for her to dress up and let me look at her. But this category comes down to Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon. Both have won multiple pre-Oscar awards, but Witherspoon has definitely won more.  And the fact that she is more of a movie-industry darling than Huffman gives her an edge. Performance wise, they were both fantastic. Huffman’s role was certainly the bigger stretch, and she pulled it off beautifully, without making it seem like she’s just a showboating actor courting awards attention. The movie is so small and low budget she should be thrilled to be in the running. She could definitely win it, but Hollywood really adores Reese Witherspoon. In a year full of dark and serious films, they may see her performance as June Carter as a particularly strong ray of sunlight through the clouds. A win for either actress would be deserved and would make me happy, but I think Reese will take it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Usually this is the toughest category, full of incredible performances. Not so much this year. Everyone is very good, of course (I think William Hurt’s spot could have gone to somebody else, however), but there’s no obvious standouts. Jake Gyllenhaal could get caught in a Brokeback sweep, but that’s a long shot. Paul Giamatti has finally been nominated after being inexplicably overlooked for Sideways. It would be great to see Giamatti take home the gold, though as good as his performance in Cinderella Man was, it still wasn’t indelible, and the movie didn’t connect with the Academy the way it was expected to.

I never would have thought this, but George Clooney has emerged as the front-runner. Personally, I think that status has less to do specifically with his performance in Syriana than it does his performance as a film presence in 2005. Between this film and Good Night, and Good Luck, Clooney proved himself a skilled and thoughtful filmmaker on both sides of the camera, and earned a lot of respect from his peers for using his clout to make small, smart, challenging films that were clearly very personal to him. If Clooney wins, it will be a classic case of Academy members being influenced by factors other than the performance itself. Clooney was good in Syriana, but if he wins it will be not so much a celebration of that specific performance as a salute for his overall work last year. With three nominations, the Academy won’t want to send him home empty handed, and since the category isn’t as competitive as usual, this is their best shot to honor him. So my money’s on Clooney, but my hopes are with Matt Dillon, whose work in Crash pretty much knocked me on my ass. I think his performance is easily the strongest of the nominees, so I’d love to see him win. And if Giamatti takes it, that’d be just fine with me too.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is the probably the most wide open category. Rachel Weisz has the most momentum going in, having won a Golden Globe and a Screen Actor’s Guild award for The Constant Gardener. But I don’t think she’s a lock. This category has a track record for upsets, and any of the contenders could hear their name called out. Sometimes a nominee in this category can get swept up in a Best Picture sweep (see Juliette Binoche in The English Patient; Judi Dench in Shakespeare in Love; Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind; and Catherine Zeta-Jones in Chicago). That could be good news for Brokeback Mountain’s Michelle Williams. Then again, her part may be too small and too subtle to capture a win. The fact that Amy Adams made it to the Oscars with Junebug is a small miracle. The movie was a tiny little indie that played in theaters last summer, but overwhelming support from film critics sustained her momentum through the awards season. If the film was seen by enough voters to get her nominated, it stands to reason it’s been seen by enough to carry her to a win. Then there’s Catherine Keener, who is hugely respected, and had a strong year with acclaimed performances not just in Capote but also in The Interpreter, The Ballad of Jack and Rose, and most memorably perhaps in The 40 Year-Old Virgin, which many Academy members seem to be big fans of even though they didn’t nominate it for anything. Her part in Capote is small and understated, but essential to the film’s success. The only nominee who I’d say can safely be discounted is Frances McDormand. She’s one of my favorites, but her work in North Country, while solid, was not Oscar worthy. Which brings us back to Rachel Weisz. She seems like the best bet, and hers was my favorite performance of the five. But of all the main categories, this is one with the most potential for an upset.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Syriana is an intricate, demanding and highly intelligent script that fully deserves its nomination. But it won’t win. The Squid and the Whale is a critic’s darling with sharply observed characters and situations. But it won’t win. Match Point is a skillfully constructed return to form for Academy favorite Woody Allen. But it won’t win. Good Night, and Good Luck is a tight, well-told story of journalism, politics and ethics that resonates strongly today despite being set in the 1950s. It could win. But it probably won’t.

No, this is the category where Crash will most likely earn it’s director, producer and co-writer (with Bobby Moresco) an Oscar win. While not a perfect script or film, it’s the most audacious and powerful of the nominees, and has resonated with audiences more than any of the others. Some have complained about the many coincidences in the script, and its extreme reliance on chance encounters between characters. They say these touches make it unrealistic. To me, those coincidences are very deliberate and very necessary. Sometimes it’s hard to accept such devices in a story, but here they are used to illustrate the themes of the film. For all its gritty realism in how people interact with one another in a modern day urban sprawl, I see Crash as a fable – in the same vein as, call me crazy, Steve Martin’s L.A. Story. It’s not whimsical like that film, but it has a fairy tale element to it that works quite well. It will win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Chalk up another victory for Brokeback Mountain. I haven’t read the short story on which the film is based, but by all accounts Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana’s work is the very definition of a great adapted screenplay: it retains the power and the essence of the source material while opening it up and adding new dimensions that are required to make it work as a film. And the movie is a powerful piece of work. Credit for that goes to the actors, to Ang Lee, and to his production team…but it starts with the script. A History of Violence, Munich and The Constant Gardener are just along for the ride. If anything is going to topple the mountain, it’s probably Dan Futterman’s taut script for Capote. But the way I see it, that script is better appreciated firmly alongside Bennett Miller’s sparse direction, whereas Brokeback’s script can more easily stand on its own.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The other nice surprise in this year’s nominations came in this category: none of the films nominated are CG, proving that the storytelling is more important than the medium used to tell it. This contest is between Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride. All signs point to a victory for the former, and I’d agree that the inventor and his dog are most likely going to win. But I offer this nugget for your consideration: Tim Burton is hugely admired in the film community. He’s never been nominated for an Oscar before, and given the quirky nature of his live action films, who knows if her ever will be. But other directors see him as a true visionary. Actors love working with him. So do craftsmen and technicians, since his unique visual style takes full advantage of their skills and imaginations. It’s possible, therefore, that Academy members will seize this chance to honor one of contemporary film’s most original artists. Wallace & Gromit is the favorite, especially since it’s such a fun, witty family film. But don’t discount the possibility of a surprise win for Burton’s bride.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
This is an tough race to call. Emmanuel Lubezki’s photography of the The New World manages to make flowing water seem like the most beautiful, exotic, wondrous thing you’ve ever seen. But seeing as this is the only nomination the film got, it probably didn’t make a strong enough impression to register with the Academy at large. Memoirs of a Geisha won the American Society of Cinematographers guild award, but Oscar’s choices often differ from the ASC. Brokeback Mountain could easily add another notch to its belt here, for the sweeping vistas of sheep moving across the American west. And I know some girls who would give Brokeback the award simply for capturing Jake Gyllenhaal on film (something several cinematographers managed to do in 2005). But I think that this may be the one award that Academy members can feel good about giving to Good Night, and Good Luck. Robert Elswit’s clean black and white images managed to keep the film feeling cinematic despite the fact that most of the action is constrained to just a few sets.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire was a great looking film, but it’s unlikely to win since the production design essentially builds on the work of previous films. This category probably comes down to King Kong and Memoirs of a Geisha. In Kong, 1930s New York City was meticulously recreated with the help of visual effects. In Geisha, Japanese villages were meticulously recreated on a studio backlot. Both films successfully transported the viewer to another realm, so how to make the call? Will voters care that Kong required CGI to complete its art direction, while Geisha was done the old fashioned way? I doubt most of them will give it a thought. It’s a coin toss, and although I may change my mind in five minutes, I’m going with Memoirs of a Geisha.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The general rule here seems to be that the more intricate and ornate the costumes, the more lovin’ they’ll get. So I think it’s safe to dismiss Walk the Line and Pride & Prejudice. With no other nominations, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is unlikely to score a win. That means the contest is between Mrs. Henderson Presents and Memoirs of a Geisha, and with all due respect to the former, that’s no contest at all. Geisha takes it. Besides, Mrs. Henderson Presents is more notable for its actresses lacking costumes of any kind. Well done, Mrs. Henderson. Well done indeed.

BEST FILM EDITING
I don’t pretend to know much about film editing, despite having several friends who make their living at it. The good news in terms of predicting this category is that most Academy members don’t know much about it either, meaning they will usually vote for the most obviously “edited” film, if that makes sense. This year, that’s Crash. Moving between several stories without losing its focus or falling out of step, voters will probably see it as the most deserving achievement. I wonder what my editor friends think…

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
This award sometimes goes to some unexpected films, like The Red Violin and Finding Neverland. So any of the five have a fair shot, but it probably comes down to John Williams for Memoirs of a Geisha and Gustavo Santaolalla for Brokeback Mountain. Oddsmakers seem to be favoring the lush Geisha score, but I find it hard to imagine Brokeback’s already iconic theme being ignored. Voters trying to hum or even recall any of the other scores as they fill out their ballots will be hard pressed to do so. But those sparse, simple notes from Brokeback evoke the beauty and emotional power that permeate the film. Plus, all those Brokeback trailer parodies online make the theme inescapable. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t win.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Interesting category this year. Certain rule changes led to only three songs being nominated instead of the usual five. One of them, Crash’s “In The Deep,” I have no memory of from the film, so I can’t fairly assess it. All I know about it is that the co-writer and singer, Kathleen York, is also an actress who had a small part in the film and plays Toby’s ex-wife Andie on The West Wing. I like her, so if she wins, I guess I’m okay with that. Unless the song sucks, of course.

You gotta love the Academy for nominating Hustle & Flow’s kick-ass groove, “It’s Hard Out Here For a Pimp.” Even though Eminem won an Oscar a few years ago, (still perhaps the coolest thing the Academy has ever done), I didn’t expect  them to embrace any of Hustle & Flow’s original tunes, though I hoped they would, since I took this song as my own personal anthem after seeing the film. Sing it with me now…

The third tune is Dolly Parton’s catchy, upbeat “Travelin’ Thru,” from Transamerica. I’d like to see this win, cause it’s just a sweet, simple little song and you know Dolly Parton would be so gracious and grateful up there accepting her award, 25 years after her only other nomination, for the theme from 9 to 5. Have enough people seen Transamerica to hear the song and vote for it? If not, will they vote for it anyway just cause Dolly Parton is so damn nice? If “It’s Hard Out Here For a Pimp” takes the prize, that would also make me very happy, for reasons we’ve already covered. But if not enough people have heard those songs for them to get the votes, “In The Deep” could take the gold simply for being in the film most widely embraced by the Academy.

BEST MAKE-UP
The make-up Oscar tends to be awarded to the more fantastical work rather than the realistic work, so that means Cinderella Man will probably stay ringside, leaving The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe and Star Wars Episode III to duke it out. Since the final installment of the Star Wars trilogy was overlooked in the visual effects category, this is the one chance the Academy has to honor the film. But I don’t think they really care, nor does the film deserve it. Technology is supposed to allow for more realistic work over time, so why is it that the Emperor’s make-up in this film looks like a cheap, rubbery Halloween mask while the make-up used for the same character, on the same actor’s face in Return of the Jedi 22 years ago was infinitely better?  I think the safest bet is The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, with it’s army of creatures that bridge the gap between human and animal.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
In this case, The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe is lucky to be here. Some of the effects, like the main character Aslan, were very well done. But there was other work in the film that was less impressive. That tends to happen with big effects projects that are worked on by many different companies; the work tends to be inconsistent. It’s the same reason that Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire didn’t make the cut: some effects, like the dragon, were stunning while others, like the merpeople, weren’t quite up to snuff.

On the other hand, the work in War of the Worlds is solid from beginning to end. From the gritty scenes of the first tripod bursting through a suburban New Jersey street to the eerie, chilling shot of a massive tripod rising out of the water at night to the more invisible effects like the amazing 360 around a car’s journey down the freeway, in which effects were used to help the camera move into and out of the car all in one shot with no edits. It’s impressive work all around, and a win would not be undeserved.

But it’s hard to imagine that Peter Jackson’s Weta Digital won’t take home it’s fourth Oscar in five years for King Kong. With all those bugs and dinosaurs, not to mention the 800 pound gorilla himself, the effects were complex and thrilling to behold. There were some weak shots and sequences here and there, but I don’t think anyone will remember that once they stare into Kong’s eyes and watch his interactions with Naomi Watts. Like they did with Gollum in The Lord of the Rings, Weta’s artists breathed life and soul into an entirely computer-generated character, once again building on the work of actor Andy Serkis, who really should be getting the award alongside the effects artists.

BEST SOUND MIXING/SOUND EDITING
These are always the categories that I find toughest to predict, because they’re the ones that I understand the least, and I’m sure that most Academy members are in the same boat. So I look to precedent to help me decide what the most likely winners will be. In the case of Sound Mixing, the award often goes to the the most prestigious film in the category – the one that has been recognized with big nominations in the top categories. Of the five nominees, the only one that qualifies is Walk the Line. It’s a fair bet to make, especially since last year’s award went to Ray. But Memoirs of a Geisha, The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, King Kong and War of the Worlds all sounded pretty good to me – particularly the latter two. So I’m going with Walk the Line, but I’m by no means convinced.

With Sound Effects Editing, there are only three nominees, usually very action oriented and dynamic, and it always seems like anyone’s game. Again, precedent shows that the winner is usually the most popular or well-received movie of the three (past winners include The Incredibles, The Matrix, The Two Towers and Saving Private Ryan). Memoirs of a Geisha can probably be ruled out, because it lacks the “dynamic” factor that the other two nominees – Kong and War of the Worlds – have. Between those two, it’s a tough call. The powerful, airhorn-like blasts made by the tripods in War of the Worlds are very effective and memorable. But then there’s Kong’s “I’m the king of the jungle and you’d best not fuck with me” roar.  For the moment I’m going with War of the Worlds, but this is another category where I might change my mind at the last minute and go for the safer bet of King Kong.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
I usually haven’t seen all the nominees in this category, so I have to base the decision solely on what I’ve heard. March of the Penguins is the obvious choice, considering that it was really the only crossover hit of the bunch. But the documentary awards seldom adhere to to such logic, so the most popular film isn’t necessarily the one to pick. Murderball had it’s fans, and Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room is particularly topical right now. Darwin’s Nightmare seems to be generating talk lately, but I don’t know much about it. Street Fight is the only one I haven’t heard of, so I’m tossing it out. I think it will come down to Penguins and Enron. If members want their vote to make a political statement, then Enron is the way to go. If they just want to vote for the film they enjoyed most, how could Penguins be denied?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
I know nothing about any of them, so I usually either go with Entertainment Weekly’s pick and/or look for the film that deals with the Holocaust. This year, EW thinks The Death of Kevin Carter will take the prize, although the subject matter of both The Mushroom Club and God Sleeps in Rwanda seem like Oscar material. I’m going with Rwanda, purely for a word association reasons: although EW describes the film as “upbeat,” Rwanda makes me think of genocide, and genocide makes me think of the Holocaust, and the Holocaust – in the framework of a conversation such as this – makes me think of Oscar winning documentaries.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
For the first time ever, I have seen all of the nominees in both this category and the Animated Short category. I was impressed with all the nominees. Six Shooter was the most interesting and bizarre, and probably my personal favorite of the bunch (although the abundance of beautiful naked women in Cashback earned that one a special place in my heart). My guess, though, is that the award will go to one of the more moving stories, which means either The Runaway or The Last Farm. I thought The Last Farm was more powerful, but the combination of humor and heart  in The Runaway, not to to mention the presence of an adorable little boy, might give it the edge. Still, I’d love to see Six Shooter get it.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
This category is impossible to predict. All the nominees were really impressive, and all very different. The silhouette animation and attention to detail in the designs in The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello were truly amazing, but the film is a bit long, and slow at first. The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation is a very personal and imaginative piece that may appeal to voters on an emotional level. Badgered is the least complex in terms of its animation, but it was very smart and funny, and even a little topical. Pixar’s One Man Band is short and sweet, a fast-paced and hilarious treat. And 9 is a trippy, inventive triumph of story and design.  You could honestly throw a dart at a list of the nominees and hit a deserving winner. Most other predictions I’ve seen are leaning towards 9, but I don’t think I’ll be able to settle on a choice until the last possible minute.

And that’s pretty much it. If you actually read all of this, you deserve an Oscar of your own. You may also want to consider a psychiatric evaluation. Whatever happens, I look forward to seeing Jon Stewart entertain the crowd. I’ll close this out with something else I like to do for my own amusement: a list of what I would have nominated in each category. Some of them match the Academy exactly, and others are more varied.

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Good Night, and Good Luck
A History of Violence
The New World

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney – Good Night, and Good Luck
David Cronenberg – A History of Violence
Woody Allen – Match Point
Terrence Malick – The New World

BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
Terrence Howard – Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger – Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix – Walk The Line
David Strathairn – Good Night, and Good Luck

BEST ACTRESS
Joan Allen – The Upside of Anger
Felicity Huffman – Transamerica
Reese Witherspoon – Walk The Line
Naomi Watts – King Kong
Ziyi Zhang – Memoirs of a Geisha

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kevin Costner – The Upside of Anger
Jeff Daniels – The Squid and the Whale
Matt Dillon – Crash
Paul Giamatti – Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal – Brokeback Mountain

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bello – A History of Violence
Q’Orinaka Kilcher – The New World
Gong Li – Memoirs of a Geisha
Thandie Newton – Crash
Rachel Weisz – The Constant Gardener

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Crash
The 40 Year-Old Virgin
Good Night, and Good Luck
Hustle & Flow
Syriana

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
Munich
Pride & Prejudice

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
King Kong
Munich
The New World

BEST FILM EDITING
Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Syriana
Walk The Line

BEST ART DIRECTION
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World
Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World
Pride & Prejudice

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Brokeback Mountain
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

BEST MAKE-UP
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Sin City
Transamerica

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
King Kong
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith
War of the Worlds

Complete List of Nominations

BEST PICTURE & BEST DIRECTOR
Will it be the old school Hollywood magic of The Aviator, or the minimalist beauty of Million Dollar Baby? I think Sideways can be counted out. Despite winning the lion’s share of critic’s award, as well as the Best Ensemble Cast award from the Screen Actor’s Guild, Sideways just doesn’t feel “big” enough to take home the top prize this year. Ray is lucky to be here. It’s a good film, well made and entertaining, but it really shouldn’t be a Best Picture nominee. And Finding Neverland, while a beautiful movie, could be the unfortunate story this year of a great film that gets overshadowed and goes home empty-handed (see also The Shawshank Redemption, The Insider, The Sixth Sense).

So, The Aviator or Million Dollar Baby? In the latter’s favor, Eastwood’s Mystic River probably would have won Best Picture last year if only a victory for The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King hadn’t been predetermined a year earlier, when The Two Towers came out and proved that Fellowship Of The Ring hadn’t been a fluke. Hollywood seemingly decided upon seeing Two Towers that they would wait until the final Rings film was released and reward that one, thus rewarding the entire masterful trilogy. So all the Mystic River karma that was built up could now flow toward Million Dollar Baby. And it is a terrific film, tightly scripted, magnificently acted, and skillfully directed. Not to mention that’s it’s incredibly moving.

Then there is The Aviator, a thrilling drama wrapped in the skin of a conventional biopic. This is a home-run movie for all involved. Leonardo DiCaprio steps up to the challenge and manages to bring Howard Hughes to memorable life despite the handicap of being Leo the Movie Star. And Scorsese delivers the film that everyone wanted Gangs Of New York to be. Glossy where Gangs was gloomy, focused where Gangs was muddled, The Aviator’s celebration of old Hollywood filmmaking could be very appealing to the Academy, which skews older and therefore might appreciate the loving portrayal of a bygone era.

The Aviator won the Producer’s Guild award. Clint Eastwood won the Director’s Guild Award. History favors the DGA winner in the Oscar race for director, and while there have only been a handful of times that the DGA winner hasn’t won the Oscar, two of those cases were in the last five years, suggesting that perhaps the current membership are more likely to break tradition. With the whole of the Academy voting, versus just the directors in the DGA, the industry at large may finally feel it’s time to honor Scorsese. Working against him is the fact that while The Aviator is one of the most well-received films of the year, it doesn’t exactly belong in the pantheon of true classics of American cinema, like Scorsese’s best work – Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and GoodFellas. Will the Academy punish him for not making films of that stature anymore, even though they failed to recognize all of them at the time? Scorsese could be unjustly forced to pay for the sins of the Academy’s past.

Eastwood has won the Oscar before, so if people are struggling to decide between him and Scorsese, that could hurt his chances. But if they pick their winner solely on the merits of the two films, well, a lot of people have been knocked out by Eastwood’s accomplishment.

I think we could be looking at a Picture/Director split this year. Either Aviator takes Best Picture while Eastwood is crowned Best Director, or vice versa. The problem there is that both pictures are so highly praised for the direction that either result seems disappointing. But if it does split, it seems more likely to me that Million Dollar Baby will take Best Picture, along with an acting prize or two, while Scorsese finally gets his directing Oscar, and The Aviator scoops up some technical prizes, and possibly one acting trophy.

That’s my call, but I really have no idea what’s going to happen in these two races.

BEST ACTOR
Jamie Foxx. I’m sure his name has been engraved on the statue for a few months now, and for anyone else to win in this race would probably constitute the biggest Oscar upset in my lifetime. It’s a strong field, so strong that a dozen other great performances, which could have been front-runners in a less competitive year, didn’t even make the cut. So one more raising of our cups to Javier Bardem (The Sea Inside), Liam Neeson (Kinsey), Jim Carrey (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind), Kevin Bacon (The Woodsman), Billy Crudup (Stage Beauty), Jeff Bridges (The Door in the Floor), Gael Garcia Bernal (The Motorcycle Diaries) and especially the perennially underappreciated Paul Giamatti (Sideways).

BEST ACTRESS
This is the one main category where I haven’t seen all the nominees. Vera Drake and Being Julia slipped by me. I did see Maria Full Of Grace, and Catalina Sandino Moreno is a winner just being here, considering her film was so small and people could have easily missed it. The Academy loves Kate Winslet, and it’s only a matter of time before she gets her Oscar. She deserves one for this performance, but Eternal Sunshine didn’t get the support it should have. I don’t want to launch into a tangent, but that movie should have been up for Best Picture, Director, Actor, Cinematography, Editing, and Visual Effects.

The media is having a field day pitting Bening and Swank in a mano a mano repeat of the 1999 race, but I’d be pretty surprised if Bening wins. I’d even be surprised if she comes in second (not that we’ll ever know). While critics loved her performance, and surely many Academy members did as well, Bening has been slighted by the Academy before. She was overlooked for both Bugsy and The American President despite strong buzz for each. Furthermore, Being Julia is a small movie that only got attention because of Bening’s work.  My guess is a lot of people haven’t seen it, and aren’t necessarily going to vote for Bening just because they feel that her time has come.

Swank is the one to beat, with wins at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actor’s Guild. Million Dollar Baby is a huge hit with Academy members, and while they’re busy grappling over the Best Picture/Best Director vote, a vote for Swank will be an easier decision. The only things I can think of that might hinder her chances are the facts that she won Best Actress not so long ago, and she’s still young. That didn’t hurt Jodie Foster, and it probably won’t hurt Swank either, but it’s possible that people may not be comfortable giving her a second Best Actress Oscar so soon.  Even Meryl Streep hasn’t won Best Actress twice. But in the end, I think people will think less about those stats and more about the power of the performance and their affection for the film.

If she does go down, it could be at the hands of Imelda Staunton. She’s won more critics awards than her competitors, and the fact that Vera Drake scored surprise nominations for Best Director and Best Screenplay proves there is a lot of admiration for the movie. On the other hand, those latter two nominations came from the individual branches, whereas the entire Academy membership will vote for the winners. That support of Vera Drake may not be as strong amongst the masses as it is with writers and directors.

If there’s a real shocker come Oscar night – I’m talking something that nobody saw coming – it could be Winslet. But Swank should have her speech ready.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
There are some who think Jamie Foxx might win this, because it allows him to be recognized while giving the Best Actor award to one of his tough competitors. No way. People love Foxx as Ray Charles, and that’s where they want to vote for him. Plus, this is a wasted nomination as far as I’m concerned. Foxx’s role in Collateral was absolutely not, by any stretch of the imagination, a supporting one. I’m certain that if you added up the time that each actor logged onscreen, Foxx would come out far ahead of Cruise. Not to mention that the story is really about Foxx’s character. It’s nice that everyone has Foxx Fever right now, but this is almost a cheat. In the 1987 race, the Academy didn’t nominate Michael Douglas for both Wall Street and Fatal Attraction. Even though the latter was nominated for Best Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress, they didn’t give Douglas a supporting actor nomination just so he could be recognized for that film as well. He was the lead actor in both films, and was singled out for his achievement in one of them. That should have been the case with Jamie Foxx, and his nomination for Collateral takes a slot away from other deserving actors.

Alan Alda’s presence is a bit of a mystery. It shows wide support for The Aviator, and Alda is a beloved figure, but was the role really that demanding or powerfully played? Alda did good, solid work, but it was hardly Oscar worthy.

Thomas Haden Church seemed like the front-runner a few months ago, but that was based on his success with the critics. I’ve suspected all along that a former sitcom actor getting his first taste of big screen success would have a tough time getting a win from the Academy. Even if he does deserve it, which he just might. And he could win, but the buzz seems to have faded a bit.

Conversely, Morgan Freeman’s buzz has shot up in recent weeks as Million Dollar Baby continues to knock ‘em dead. Freeman is very good in the movie, and while I don’t think it ranks with his best, most memorable work, it is undoubtedly a fine performance in a hugely popular (with the Academy) movie, and a chance for an actor who is beloved in the industry to finally win his first award without it being purely for sentimental reasons.

If there’s a dark horse, it’s Clive Owen, who has steadily done good work over the years and was caustically hilarious in Closer. But his chances are hurt by the underwhelming support of the movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I like Laura Linney more and more with each performance I see. In fact, many critics praised her lead performance in p.s. as being Oscar-worthy, and I’m inclined to agree.  But really, what is she doing here for Kinsey? She was good, but by no means incredible, and when Liam Neeson and Bill Condon’s script were passed over, why single out Linney?

Sophie Okenedo was very good in Hotel Rwanda, and is the beneficiary of the movie’s strong buzz. But ultimately the character doesn’t break out beyond the role of patient wife.

On the heels of her brief but excellent work in Cold Mountain, Natalie Portman got back to great acting this year in both Garden State and Closer. But Portman is young and will have many more shots.

It comes down to Cate Blanchett and Virginia Madsen. Blanchett’s buzz seems to be a little louder these days, but I’m not entirely convinced. In her favor, people seem to love her, and her ability to transform and disappear into character is amazing.  It’s actually surprising that this is only her second nomination, her previous one being for Elizabeth in 1998. People are impressed with how she took Katherine Hepburn from potential caricature to fully-lived in performance, but I wonder if Jamie Foxx doing the same with Ray Charles will in any way diminish Blanchett’s accomplishment in the eyes of Academy members. Plus, it is possible to imagine that people may have been annoyed by Blanchett’s performance as the grandly chatty Hepburn. But if people are voting Million Dollar Baby and Clint Eastwood for Best Picture and Director, here’s the best shot at giving Aviator one win in the major categories.

Virginia Madsen is so wonderful in Sideways, delivering some of the film’s best dialogue and projecting such a true warmth and veracity. If anything hurts her, it might be how simple and honest she is in the film. As much as I love Blanchett and eagerly await her day for an Oscar, I think Madsen deserves it. But I’m not sure she’ll get it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
If we’ve talked in the last year, I think you know how I feel about Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind. Let me refresh your memory: best movie, by far, of 2004. And Charlie Kaufman, who should already have an Oscar or two, better get it this year. I think he will. Kaufman’s movies dazzle, and he continually kicks it up a notch with each film. This one tapped beautifully into universal realities of love, but with Kaufman’s singular vision.  Although it didn’t do as well with the Academy as it should have, they’d have to be a bunch of morons not to recognize this work.

If they are a bunch of morons, there is one other good choice to be made.  The Incredibles is a remarkably well-written movie, and could triumph here. But with the film likely to win Best Animated Feature, that may be all the major recognition it gets.

Hotel Rwanda clearly earned the respect of Academy members. It’s a moving story, well done on every level. If members don’t want to send it home empty handed, and/or if they want to make some kind of half-assed political statement, they could vote Rwanda. And it wouldn’t be the first time they overlooked the more innovative script for something more traditional. (I love Gosford Park, but a screenplay win over Memento? I don’t think so.) But Hotel Rwanda is pretty straightforward in its telling. The power lies in the true events themselves, and in the great performance by Don Cheadle.

The Aviator can be admired for getting so much material into one movie, and for choosing to focus on the less-publicized period of Hughes’ life, but some felt the film was too long and still tried to cover too much. As for Vera Drake, I always get pissed when Mike Leigh gets screenplay nominations, since his movies are largely improvised. I’m sure there’s more to it than that and I won’t claim to know his exact working method, but it just feels unfair to me.

So Eternal Sunshine deserves the award and seems likely to win (it just captured the Writer’s Guild award), but watch out for spoilers from a deserving Incredibles and a less deserving Rwanda.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Sideways has all the momentum here, having won virtually every adapted screenplay prize possible on the road to the Oscars, and trumping Eternal Sunshine when only one screenplay mention was given. Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor were nominated for Election, and egregiously overlooked for About Schmidt. They deserve it for Sideways.

If anything could stop it, Million Dollar Baby seems the one. Paul Haggis’ tight, minimalist script could reasonably get caught up in a Baby sweep. Finding Neverland, Before Sunset and The Motorcycle Diaries are along for the ride.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Shark Tale sucks and shouldn’t even be here. Shrek 2 was popular, and it’s a good movie, but The Incredibles is in a class all its own, and everyone seems to agree.

BEST ART DIRECTION
I think it should go to Lemony Snicket, but I feel like this category tends to favor period pieces over fantasy creations. Not always, but more often than not. It could go to Phantom Of The Opera, but I think The Aviator is most likely to win over those two, Finding Neverland and A Very Long Engagement.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Passion Of The Christ is supposedly beautifully shot. I haven’t seen it, but even its detractors seem to agree on that. But I’m still not sure the Hollywood community wants to embrace or anoint it. A Very Long Engagement won the prize from the American Society of Cinematographers, but that’s not necessarily a harbinger for the Oscar. House Of Flying Daggers could definitely get it, while Phantom Of The Opera is unlikely. I think The Aviator will win here again, for its scope if nothing else.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
This is the only nomination for Troy, so a win would be a long shot.  Ray and Finding Neverland will probably be overshadowed by the scale of The Aviator and the imagination of Lemony Snicket. In this race, I think Snicket may take the gold.

BEST EDITING
What do I know about editing? They say this usually goes to the movie that wins Best Picture. So let’s assume then that it won’t be Collateral, Finding Neverland or Ray. That leaves either the terse rhythms of Million Dollar Baby or the epic storytelling of The Aviator.  I’m going with The Aviator, but who knows?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
It should be Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, which is not only a far better score in its entirety than the earlier films in the series, but far and away the best complete score John Williams has written in years. I’m hoping that Academy members will think so too. But if not, this could be the one place to recognize Finding Neverland.

Thomas Newman should have about three or four Oscars by now, but amazingly is still awaiting his first. His score for Lemony Snicket is fine, but not outstanding. The Village score seemed to impress musicians, but the Academy at large is unlikely to take notice. And The Passion Of The Christ, again, is supposed to be quite well done. But do they want to reward it?  I want to go out on a limb and predict Harry Potter, but I suppose Finding Neverland is the safer choice.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Okay, I’ve tried to refrain from mentioning the glaring omissions as I’ve worked through these categories, but I can’t hold back here. How could “Old Habits Die Hard,” Mick Jagger and Dave Stewart’s terrific song from Alfie, not have been nominated? It should be winning this award, and instead one of three underwhelming songs will be chosen instead. I’m willing to bet that a foreign language song isn’t going to win, so that removes The Motorcycle Diaries and Les Choristes from the equation. Of the remaining three, the best song is “Accidentally In Love,” from Shrek 2.  It’s not great (and I say that as a big Counting Crows fan), but it’s catchy and upbeat.  I haven’t seen Phantom Of The Opera, so I can’t judge what chance “Learn to Be Lonely” has. When Andrew Lloyd Webber wrote an original song for the film of Evita, he won the Oscar, so he could do it again here. But this film doesn’t seem to be quite as popular as that was. As for The Polar Express song, “Believe,” I have this to say: the songs in that movie were fucking terrible, and it’s an outrage that this schmaltzy, hackneyed piece of shit is nominated while “Old Habits Die Hard” is left out. Watch this crap win.

Oh and by the way, Alfie wasn’t the only movie that got screwed here. How about the great songs from Team America? The ballad of longing sung by Kim Jong Il, “I’m So Ronery,” should be here as well. What happened this year? Did the music branch offer up such lame choices because it was ashamed of giving Eminem an Oscar two years ago? That was nothing to be ashamed of. The same can’t be said of their list this year.

BEST SOUND & SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
I feel like more often than not, the Sound award goes to the prestige Best Picture contender, while the Sound Effects Editing award goes to the action picture. Sometimes those movies are one and the same, like Titanic or Saving Private Ryan.

This year, I think Ray or The Aviator have the edge in the sound race over Spider-Man 2, The Incredibles and The Polar Express. I think general momentum will carry The Aviator, but if voters equate sound with music, then Ray might be the winner.

As for sound effects editing, action seems to beat animation in this race, so I think Spider-Man 2 will win over The Incredibles and The Polar Express.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
I think we can safely count out I, Robot.  The battle is between Spider-Man 2 and Harry Potter.  In Spidey’s favor: the effects were a noticeable improvement over the first film’s, and even more complex because of the Doc Ock character; the movie grossed more than Potter; and it won outstanding reviews. In Potter’s favor, this is the first time a movie in this series has managed to be nominated, and there was some very impressive work on display, mainly the Dementors and Buckbeak the hippogriff. Although Spider-Man 2 outgrossed it, Potter was still a huge hit, and also earned great reviews. So which will it be?  My spidey sense is tingling, but I’m hoping Potter has the magic.

BEST MAKE-UP
Aging make-up doesn’t usually seem to win, unless perhaps the make-up award gets caught up in a sweep. So I’m doubtful The Sea Inside will take the prize. Here’s another shot for The Passion Of The Christ to be recognized, but I think Lemony Snicket will take it.

Finally, just for my own fun, I came up with my list of who should have been nominated in each category…bearing in mind that I haven’t seen Passion of the Christ, Vera Drake, Being Julia, Dogville, Bad Education, Beyond The Sea, The Merchant of Venice, and The Woodsman.

If the Academy could think a tiny bit more outside the box…

BEST PICTURE
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finding Neverland
The Incredibles
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

BEST DIRECTOR
Marc Forster – Finding Neverland
Michel Gondry – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Alfonso Cuaron – Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Clint Eastwood – Million Dollar Baby
Sam Raimi – Spider-Man 2

BEST ACTOR
Jim Carrey – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Don Cheadle – Hotel Rwanda
Billy Crudup – Stage Beauty
Jamie Foxx – Ray
Paul Giamatti – Sideways

BEST ACTRESS
Julie Delpy – Before Sunset
Laura Linney – p.s.
Hilary Swank – Million Dollar Baby
Uma Thurman – Kill Bill, Vol. 2
Kate Winslet – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
David Carradine – Kill Bill, Vol. 2
Thomas Haden Church – Sideways
Morgan Freeman – Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen – Closer
Mark Wahlberg – I Heart Huckabee’s

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – We Don’t Live Here Anymore
Virginia Madsen – Sideways
Natalie Portman – Garden State
Sharron Warren – Ray
Emma Watson – Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Garden State
I Heart Huckabees
In Good Company
The Incredibles

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Sunset
Closer
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Collateral
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Finding Neverland
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
House of Flying Daggers

BEST ART DIRECTION
Closer
House of Flying Daggers
The Incredibles
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou

BEST EDITING
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
I Heart Huckabee’s
House of Flying Daggers
Kill Bill, Vol. 2
Ray

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
House of Flying Daggers
The Incredibles
Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou
Vanity Fair

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Eternal Sunshine Of the Spotless Mind
Finding Neverland
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
House of Flying Daggers
The Incredibles

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Old Habits Die Hard – Alfie
I’m So Ronery – Team America: World Police
Accidentally In Love – Shrek 2
?
?

BEST SOUND
The Aviator
House of Flying Daggers
The Incredibles
Kill Bill, Vol. 2
Ray

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Spider-Man 2

BEST MAKE-UP
The Aviator
Lemony Snicket
The Sea Inside