While having lunch with some friends recently, the topic turned – as it inevitably does when I’m involved – to movies. Specifically, the Academy Awards and what upcoming movies did I think might get nominated. They told me I should write something up on the subject so that less movie-obsessed people – that is, most people I know – would have some idea of what might be worth seeing over the next several weeks. So despite the fact that such previews are readily available in legitimate locations like Entertainment Weekly, The New York Times and The USA Today, and despite the fact that most of what I know about these yet-to-be-released movies comes from those very sources – I took up the call.
So here is a rundown, by release date, of what movies on the way are generating awards talk. I recognize that most of you will maybe see a few of these in the theater at most, but what the hell? Maybe I can get you to see the right ones (starting with Precious).
Note that some of these dates may be limited releases, perhaps just in NY or LA. They could be opening wider in later weeks, spilling into January.
NOVEMBER 20
BROKEN EMBRACES – For you foreign film lovers, Spain’s two-time Academy Award winning filmmaker Pedro Almodovar is back and once again collaborating with his muse, Penelope Cruz. Almodovar’s films can always be counted on for their vivid color palettes, strong female characters and fanciful plot developments. His last collaboration with Cruz, 2006’s Volver, earned her a Best Actress nomination. Too soon to say if she’ll get another, but the potential is certainly there.
THE TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON – Looks like your standard story of boy meets girl, boy turns out to be vampire, boy has to go away, girl is sad, girl meets other boy, other boy turns out to be werewolf, vampire boy comes back, girl is torn between vampire boy and werewolf boy. Been there, done that, right? The soundtrack has made news for it’s collection of hip artists like Death Cab for Cutie, The Killers, Muse and Radiohead’s Thom Yorke. If any of the songs were written specifically for the movie, maybe one of them will make the Best Original Song shortlist. Beyond that, don’t look for any Oscar recognition; this film’s reward will come in the form of heaping piles of cash money (it’s opening weekend gross was $140 million).
THE MESSENGER – Ben Foster and Woody Harrelson play soldiers tasked with the difficult responsibility of visiting military families to inform them that a loved one has been killed in action. I haven’t seen most of Foster’s work, but his ass-kicking performance in 3:10 to Yuma definitely left me eager for more, and I’m always happy to see Harrelson, especially after his recent ass-kicking performance in Zombieland (which is an ass-kicking movie all-around. It won’t win any Oscars, but seriously, if you haven’t seen that movie yet, put it at the top of your list. One of my favorites of the year.).
Reviews of The Messenger have been positive so far, with particular praise being directed toward Foster, Harrelson and Samantha Morton. Will the movie earn enough attention for nominations? It may be too small for Foster to compete in a tight Best Actor field, but Harrelson and Morton might have shots in the Supporting categories, and the Screenplay is a possibility as well.
NOVEMBER 25
THE ROAD – Viggo Mortensen stars in this adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s sparse, Pulitzer Prize winning novel that follows a father and son as they try to survive in a harsh, post-apocalyptic landscape. The look of the film seems to capture something beautiful in ashen desolation, so some technical nominations for things like Art Direction and Cinematography might be in store. If the movie delivers emotionally – and from what I’ve heard, it does – some major-category nominations could be in the cards as well. My gut tells me Viggo is looking at his second shot in the Best Actor race.
ME AND ORSON WELLES – This film, from Dazed and Confused/Before Sunrise/Before Sunset/School of Rock director Richard Linklater, was completed quite a while ago and has been sitting on the shelf awaiting a release date. Not always a good sign, but the film has played at a couple of festivals in that time and received decent reviews. Zac Efron will try to prove his dramatic chops in the role of an actor who finds himself part of Orson Welles’ theatre company in the 1930’s. Claire Danes co-stars, and I recently read something about actor Christian McKay, who plays Welles, being a strong shot at a Best Supporting Actor nomination. The Supporting Actor race is looking surprisingly light on heavyweight contenders this year – it’s usually one of the most competitive categories – but I feel like if McKay had such a good shot, I would have heard about him sooner; I pay attention to this stuff year-round. Still, I’m hardly an insider, so we’ll see…
FANTASTIC MR. FOX – Wes Anderson is one of the most unique voices in American film today, so I can’t wait to see how he applies his trademark style to this stop-motion animated adaptation of the book by Roald Dahl, author of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and James and the Giant Peach. George Clooney and Meryl Streep provide voices, along with Anderson regulars Bill Murray, Owen Wilson and Jason Schwartzman. Reviews have been great and while I have yet to see all of the competition, I feel like if any movie can beat Up for the Best Animated Feature award, this is the one. Should be a blast no matter what.
NOVEMBER 27
THE PRIVATE LIVES OF PIPPA LEE – The great Robin Wright Penn…oooh, make that just Robin Wright again….stars in this drama from writer/director Rebecca Miller (daughter of Arthur, wife of Daniel Day-Lewis). I don’t really know the plot details, but Wright is so underrated and so damn beautiful that I’ll just be happy to see her in a lead role that is likely to have some depth and let her show her stuff. The strong supporting cast includes Alan Arkin, Julianne Moore, Keanu Reeves, and Winona Ryder. The movie will have to hit hard for Wright to be a viable Best Actress candidate, and I’m not sure it can break through. Then again, she’s never been nominated…and don’t discount the power of sympathy; she is coming off a public divorce…
DECEMBER 4
BROTHERS – There’s been surprisingly little advance word on this film from Jim Sheridan, the acclaimed director of My Left Foot, In the Name of the Father and In America. A remake of a 2004 Danish film, it stars Natalie Portman as a woman who learns that her husband (Tobey Maguire) has been killed in Afghanistan. His brother (Jake Gyllenhaal) tries to help her and her young kids cope, and…well, I don’t know how far it goes but let’s just say the coping gets intimate. Which might not be so bad if the husband wasn’t possibly still alive. I’ve heard nothing yet about how the film is, but despite a dramatic story and the impressive line-up of talent, it has been largely ignored by award speculators. If it turns out to be good, maybe that will change.
EVERYBODY’S FINE – Robert DeNiro stars as a widower who sets out to visit his three grown children when they all cancel their annual visits home. Drew Barrymore, Sam Rockwell and Kate Beckinsale play the kids. DeNiro is being talked about as a possible Best Actor nominee, but having seen the trailer, I’m hardly sold. The movie looks like a slice of holiday, “family is important” warmth, but too slight to land even the likes of DeNiro in a sure-to-be competitive Best Actor race. Maybe he’ll eek out a Golden Globe nomination, but the movie will have to be pretty impressive for the raging bull to enter the Oscar ring.
THE LAST STATION – I got to see an advance screening of this drama about War and Peace author Leo Tolstoy and the battle over the rights to his work. His wife, played by Helen Mirren, feels that he must sell the rights to ensure the financial security of his family; his close friend and collaborator, played by Paul Giamatti, feels that Tolstoy’s work – which was the basis of a full-on movement and way of life – was the birthright of all Russian people. Christopher Plummer plays the aging author, and James McAvoy is an eager young follower who is appointed his executive secretary and finds himself caught in the middle of the struggle. If it all sounds terribly dull, it isn’t. There’s a lot of humor in the film, and all the performers create genuine sparks in their interactions. It’s also the story of an enduring, passionate marriage, and Helen Mirren could well wind up with a Best Actress nomination for her part in that complicated dynamic.
DECEMBER 11
THE LOVELY BONES – As far as the Oscars go, there are three big mysteries as we enter the home stretch; three hugely anticipated movies that are considered major Oscar magnets based on their pedigrees, but which no one has actually seen yet. All the buzz is based purely on expectations. This is the first of the three, and personally one of my two most anticipated films of the season. After the Lord of the Rings trilogy and King Kong, director Peter Jackson scales it down and adapts the best-selling novel about a raped and murdered 13 year-old girl who watches from the afterlife as her family deals with her death and her killer covers his tracks and prepares to strike again. Jackson seems the ideal choice to make something beautiful, moving, funny and powerful from this premise. If the film lives up to the hype, expect nominations far and wide – from the top races like Picture Director, Screenplay and Acting (Stanley Tucci as the killer and Saoirse Ronan – already a past nominee for Atonement – as his young victim are being called the likeliest bets) to technical categories like Cinematography and Visual Effects.
INVICTUS – This is the second of the three. Directed by Clint Eastwood, the film finds Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela and Matt Damon as a South African rugby captain who helped Mandela bring their racially divided country together. I don’t know much about this true story, but you’ve got Clint Eastwood directing Morgan Freeman as Mandela, with Matt Damon along for the ride. That’s a winning set-up if ever I heard of one. I’d like to believe that this role will provide Freeman with an easy Best Actor nomination. Picture, Director, Screenplay and a Supporting Actor nod for Damon could follow suit if the movie wins raves.
A SINGLE MAN – Fashion designer Tom Ford makes his directorial debut with a drama about a gay man in the 60’s mourning the sudden death of his longtime partner. The film made a big splash in September at the Toronto Film Festival, where Colin Firth and Julianne Moore instantly became heavy favorites to earn nominations for Actor and Supporting Actress, respectively. I got to see an advance screening of this recently, and I liked it overall. It feels like a European film to me – a comment I make fully acknowledging that I don’t really know what I’m talking about. I enjoyed Firth’s performance, and though Moore’s part was small, she was good. The film’s cinematography could also break into the Oscar race if the voters are feeling arty.
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG – It’s been a while since Disney has made a traditional, 2-D, hand-drawn feature, so hopes are high for this New Orleans-set, Cajun take on the classic fairy tale. It will be fighting a tough battle for one of the Best Animated Feature slots, and given Disney’s track record with music nominations, the songs and score will likely demand attention.
UP IN THE AIR – This is already one of the frontrunners on the awards circuit. Jason Reitman’s follow-up to Juno has met universally glowing reviews from critics and festival audiences, all of whom are praising it as a smart Hollywood crowd-pleaser with genuine depth, humor and emotional heft. Expect nominations for Picture, Actor (George Clooney), and most likely Director, Adapted Screenplay and one or two Supporting Actresses. The film opens in limited release a week earlier and goes wider on Christmas.
DECEMBER 16
CRAZY HEART – This is a really late entry into the field. Fox Searchlight just announced about two weeks ago that they’d be releasing the film this year on the strength of a lead performance by Jeff Bridges that is being called (by who I don’t know) one of his best. Now all the Oscar-pundits are calling him a shoo-in nominee. I’m willing to go along with it. Bridges has never won an Oscar, and the fact that he’s well liked and admired within the industry means people will pay attention. Fox Searchlight knows how to sell movies to the Academy (see Little Miss Sunshine, Juno and Slumdog Millionaire). Plot? Don’t really know. Bridges plays a hard-livin’ country singer, and that’s about all I’ve heard. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Colin Farrell and Robert Duvall co-star.
DECEMBER 18
AVATAR – Welcome back, James Cameron. You’ve been missed. The director’s first narrative feature in 12 years – 12 years! – combines motion capture technology with what is said to be amazing 3-D visuals to create what is undoubtedly the most widely anticipated film of the year. Will it deliver? My hopes are high. While I’m excited for the film as a sci-fi action epic of the kind that Cameron has always excelled in creating, I’m less certain about it’s Oscar prospects. Some film writers have been talking up the film as an obvious Best Picture nominee, but I’m not sure why. Yes, Cameron’s last film was Titanic, winner of 11 Oscars. And yes, this year’s expansion of Best Picture to ten nominees instead of the traditional five would allow for a film like this to break in. But I think people are making assumptions based on Titanic‘s success. This film is not Titanic. That was an epic romance, wrapped in a period piece, smothered in DiCaprio and Winslet. Avatar doesn’t have the same obvious Oscar appeal. I’m not saying Best Picture and Director nominations aren’t in the cards. I’m just saying let’s not count our alien eggs before they hatch. But Oscars or not, I can’t wait to behold this in all of its 3-D IMAX glory.
THE YOUNG VICTORIA – Emily Blunt stars as Queen Victoria, and uhh, there you have it. I don’t know anything about Victoria, but this will surely be a lush looking period piece, which places it in the running for Art Direction and Costume Design nominations. It’s the kind of role that could put Blunt into the Best Actress race, but I’d consider her a long shot at this point.
DECEMBER 25
THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS – Heath Ledger’s final film looks like the trippiest trip of the year, which makes sense given that it’s directed by Terry Gilliam. A fantasy involving a mysterious circus troupe, the wild visuals will be ripe contenders for Art Direction and Costume Design Oscars. Ledger died during production, and was replaced by Johnny Depp, Colin Farrell and Jude Law, all of whom will play different incarnations of his character. Should be fun.
IT’S COMPLICATED – Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin play a divorced couple who rekindle the passion even as she is getting flirty with her new architect, played by Steve Martin. That’s a great trio of actors working together in what will surely be a crowd pleasing comedy for the mature crowd. Director Nancy Meyers’ previous film, Something’s Gotta Give, scored Diane Keaton a Best Actress nomination. This time around, I think the leading lady’s Oscar hopes will be dashed by a formidable opponent: herself. Streep’s nomination is much more likely to come for Julie & Julia.
NINE – Here is the third of the as-yet-unseen Oscar season mysteries I mentioned earlier. It’s also the answer to your prayers if, like me, you’ve been wondering how long you’d have to wait for a cinematic collaboration between Dame Judi Dench and Black Eyed Peas’ Fergie. My friends, your wait is over. Nine (not to be confused with District 9 or the animated film 9) is the new film from Chicago director Rob Marshall, and is based on the stage musical which in turn is based on Fellini’s classic film 8 1/2. Daniel Day-Lewis plays an Italian director suffering artistic and personal crises while juggling the relationships with various women in his life, played by Dench, Sophia Loren, Marion Cotillard, Nicole Kidman, Kate Hudson, Penelope Cruz…and Fergie. Whether the film is good or bad, Marshall’s visual flair all but guarantees it will load up on technical nominations – Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Editing, and a Sound nomination are highly likely. And if it turns out to be as good a movie as Chicago, then you’re also looking at potential for Picture, Director and at at least a couple of those performers. It’s the best bet to lead the field with the most nominations of the year.
DECEMBER 30
THE LOSS OF A TEARDROP DIAMOND – This drama based on a previously unproduced screenplay be Tennessee Williams is getting a limited, Oscar qualifying release in the hopes that actress Bryce Dallas Howard could earn a nomination. But with a movie this small, getting a release this late in the year, I put her chances at slim to none unless the performance turns out to be a work of complete brilliance.
So that’s what the rest of the year looks like in terms of releases with Oscar potential. Even this late in the game, it’s possible that another small film will find its way into the market, but probably nothing that will alter the playing field too significantly.
Now here are some thoughts on films from earlier in the year, including the most recent releases, that have Oscar buzz. Some of these are generating talk purely because of the X-factor created by a ten-slot Best Picture race. Otherwise we wouldn’t be talking about them…
STAR TREK – A lot of people are wondering if in the brave new world of ten Best Picture nominees, a well-crafted, well-reviewed, smart and exciting piece of popular entertainment like Star Trek could get nominated. Anything is possible, but I’m not betting on it. True that last year, The Dark Knight – a massive summer blockbuster – was widely expected to score nominations for Picture, Director and Screenplay, and those expectations fizzled…to much disappointment. But if trying to equate Star Trek to one of last summer’s big hits, I’d look to Iron Man rather than The Dark Knight. Iron Man and Star Trek are typical examples of popcorn movies at their best, but I’m not sure they belong in a Best Picture race at the Oscars. When you think about the blockbusters that have been nominated in the recent past, such as Ghost, The Fugitive, The Sixth Sense, the Lord of the Rings films, they all feel more “serious” than Trek or Iron Man, even if they were commercial crowd-pleasers. So, Trek? Maybe some technical nominations, but I’ll be surprised if it cracks the Best Picture line-up.
THE HANGOVER – Much like Star Trek being considered a Best Picture possibility, this year’s breakout comedy hit is being seen as a possible atypical nominee in a ten-picture race. But like Star Trek, I’d be really surprised to see it happen. Funny as it is, the movie is just not the kind of well-crafted piece that Academy members usually nominate, nor does it have the kind of emotional resonance that led many members to tout The 40 Year-Old Virgin back in 2005 (that film earned no nominations, despite many voters saying they supported it). Zach Galifianakis has also been called a longshot Best Supporting Actor contender. I’d call it a reeeeeeaaaaaaaalllllllly long shot. Galifianakis is damn funny in the movie, but an Oscar nomination? C’mon…
UP – Now’s here’s a hit movie that could benefit from the new system. Along with The Dark Knight, Pixar’s Wall-E was the other movie last year that many people felt deserved a place in the Best Picture race. But having the Best Animated Feature category allowed people to recognize Wall-E without taking a coveted Best Picture slot. With ten nominations, it is much more likely for an adored animated film to earn a place, and Up is certainly a worthy contender. The film’s opening 10-15 minutes alone constitute some the best filmmaking I’ve seen all year…or in several years, for that matter. Whatever happens in the Best Picture race, Up will be the one to beat for Best Animated Feature, and nominations for Original Screenplay and Original Score are good bets too.
THE HURT LOCKER – Director Kathryn Bigelow’s powerful, intense drama about an army bomb squad in Iraq has maintained its momentum and is considered a likely nominee for Best Picture, Director (Bigelow would be only the fourth woman ever nominated) and Original Screenplay. Nominations for Film Editing and Sound are also strong possibilities. There is also talk around the three main actors – Jeremy Renner in the Lead race and Anthony Mackie and Brian Geraghty in the Supporting. I’m not sure any of them will make the cut. Renner’s work may be too subtle and internalized. I’d give Geraghty and edge over Mackie, but I’d be surprised by either of them.
IN THE LOOP – I would love to see this movie get a Screenplay nomination. It’s a smart, tight and totally hilarious movie about botched diplomatic relations between the United States and Britain in the days leading up to a war in the Middle East. As long as you aren’t a prude when it comes to profanity, do yourself a favor and put this one in your Netflix queue.
JULIE & JULIA – Meryl Streep is a lock for her sixteenth nomination. Stanley Tucci is a likely Best Supporting Actor contender, but whether it will be for this film or for The Lovely Bones remains to be seen.
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS – The movie has one sure bet nominee in Christoph Waltz, whose charismatic work as a verbose, cunning SS colonel will land him in the Best Supporting Actor category. Melanie Laurent, as a movie theater proprietor with a personal agenda, could make the Supporting Actress race. Beyond that, I’m not sure if the movie is seen as Best Picture material. It’s certainly bravura filmmaking from Tarantino, but I don’t think he’ll make it into the Best Director race. He has a better chance at an Original Screenplay nomination.
DISTRICT 9 – It’s a longshot, but this high-energy, low-tech sci-fi movie was well received by audiences and critics. Normally it would be out of the running, but a movie like this could get nominated with ten slots. Original Screenplay is another possibility.
THE INFORMANT! – Steven Soderbergh’s dry comedy about an inept corporate whistleblower earned solid reviews and high praise for Matt Damon. Despite consistently terrific performances, Damon has not been nominated since Good Will Hunting. A couple of months ago it looked like this film might change that, but I don’t think it has held the attention necessary to carry Damon along. A Golden Globe nomination is more likely, and that could remind voters of the work, but at this point my guess is that it won’t happen. Damon still has a shot, however, thanks to his as-yet-unseen supporting performance in Invictus.
A SERIOUS MAN – Another critical hit for the Coen Brothers, but don’t look for this one to have the kind of impact of No Country for Old Men. A Picture nomination could be in the cards but its best bet is in the Original Screenplay race.
BRIGHT STAR – Abbie Cornish’s rave reviews for this period love story about poet John Keats have put her on the shortlist for a Best Actress nomination, but despite the movie’s positive reviews, Cornish may need attention throughout the awards season to sustain her until the Oscar nominations are announced in February. She’ll probably have it. Paul Schneider’s supporting performance is being called a possibility, and the costumes may be honored as well.
AN EDUCATION – British newcomer Carey Mulligan has earned comparisons to Audrey Hepburn for her luminous performance as an intelligent, confident schoolgirl in the 60’s who gets swept into a romance with a dashing thirtysomething played by Peter Sarsgaard. It’s a charming movie well-told on all levels, and Mulligan is widely expected to earn a Best Actress nomination. Some are calling Alfred Molina a lock for Best Supporting Actor as Mulligan’s father. I think “lock” is extreme, but he’s surely in the running. Novelist Nick Hornby adapted the screenplay, though there may be too much high-profile competition in that category for him to earn a spot. A Best Picture nomination will depend on how the movie fares during the awards season. The American Film Institute, Broadcast Film Critics Association and Golden Globes all honor ten movies vs. five, and if An Education is recognized by a couple of those groups, it’s chances will look good.
WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE – One of my favorite movies of the year, this emotionally rich adaptation of the classic book fleshes out the story and the characters in amazing, unexpected ways. I don’t know if it will earn the Oscar attention it deserves, but I’d personally love to see nominations for Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay.
PRECIOUS – If you plan to avoid this movie because the story of an illiterate, pregnant black teenager in Harlem with a horribly abusive mother sounds like a downer, you’ll be missing one of the best movies of the year. Yes, it is hard to watch at times, but the characters are so real and fascinating and the story so strong that it grabs hold early on and doesn’t let go. You won’t leave feeling depressed; you’ll leave feeling moved and amazed. Expect nominations across the major categories – Picture, Actress (newcomer Gabourey Sibide) and Supporting Actress (Mo’Nique) for sure; Director and Adapted Screenplay most likely. Though a completely different kind of film, the effect Precious is having on viewers makes it this year’s Slumdog Millionaire. Don’t miss it.
And there you have it. Now as some of you may know, the awards landscape begins to take shape in early December, when national and regional film critic organizations start naming their choices for the best of the year. In January, the various guilds (Screen Actors Guild, Director’s Guild of America, Writer’s Guild of America, American Society of Cinematographers, etc.) will begin naming their nominees, and those are particularly important in the prediction game because those organizations actually have membership crossover with the Academy. So in a few weeks, this wide speculation you’ve seen in this message will start to get a little more focused. Until then…the balcony is open. Go see some movies!
THE DEPARTED
I watch a lot of television. The list of shows of which I’ve been a regular viewer this decade is extensive.
With all the shows I watch, naturally I have my opinions about who and what deserves to be nominated when the Emmys roll around (and the Golden Globes and Screen Actor’s Guild Awards). While there are bound to be pleasing nominations, it is inevitable that some of the best work on television is shockingly overlooked. How could this show not be singled out? How could that performance be ignored? Every year, those of us who pay attention to these things – from professional TV journalists and critics to wannabes like myself – bemoan the flawed system and champion our forgotten favorites. But here’s the problem, and it surprises me that I’ve never come across it explicitly stated, though I’m sure others must have said it before me: it is pretty much impossible to improve the system. With the sheer volume of television programming on the air, there is simply no way to effectively evaluate all the offerings.
But how can you fairly judge an actor’s work based on a single episode? Sure, sometimes there are individual installments that have standout performances – the kind you watch and know, “That’s the show they’ll submit to the Emmys.” Take “Whitecaps,” the season four finale of The Sopranos, in which Carmela throws Tony out of the house. The explosive and emotional performances by Edie Falco and James Gandolfini made it the obvious choice for submission (and they each won the prize that year). This season, Lost’s Terry O’Quinn – who has been nominated multiple times and won an award two years ago – had an excellent showcase in “The Life and Death of Jeremy Bentham.” It may be the best work he’s done yet as John Locke (which is saying something). One need only look at the episode to know it was the type of single-hour stunner that the current Emmy system could reward (though he was, surprisingly, overlooked this year).
I’m not here to offer solutions or say how to fix the problem. (I guess I just did, actually, but having acknowledged that my suggestion is impossible – or rather, completely impractical – I have nothing more to give.) I guess my point is to say what no one else I read ever seems to say, which is that the television landscape is too vast and too rich to be properly honored by any system seeking to pull out five or six “best” in different categories. So despite the absence of Josh Holloway and Chloe Sevigny, of Californication’s David Duchovny and True Blood’s Nelsan Ellis, I’ll try to take my own advice when I watch the Emmys on Sunday night: enjoy the victories for your personal faves, try not to be too upset when your picks lose, and don’t be exasperated by what wasn’t included to begin with. There’s a better place to channel that energy and frustration: the Oscars. It’s much easier to bitch about them.
I Am DB 