I Am DB

Predicting the nominees has been a bitch this year.

For starters, everyone seems to agree that 2011 wasn’t all that strong a year for movies. There was a lot of good and not much great…yet almost every category sports an abundance of worthy nominees. And while a few frontrunners are starting to emerge, no win feels inevitable. Usually by this time, the countless critics awards and initial guild nominations have helped clarify the field a bit, with at least one or two categories sporting a sure-fire winner. Not so this year. Without the usual sense of passion centered around a handful of films, things seem more prone to change between now and late February. All of which makes it an exciting race, but not an easy one to forecast. The new Best Picture rules don’t exactly help either. What new Best Picture rules, you may ask? Well let’s get the party started and find out…

Oh, a note for the nine of you that have actually read these in the past: normally I include my personal nomination picks for each category, but I’ve decided to hold off on that this year since there are still a few key movies that have yet to arrive in the Bay Area or which I just haven’t had a chance to see. They include The Iron Lady, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Coriolanus and Albert Nobbs. I missed the boat on a few others, including the acclaimed indie Tyrannosaur, but once again I’m pleased to say that I’ve seen pretty much everything that’s part of the conversation (I even saw Margaret during its super-quick theatrical run! ). Anyway, at some point between now and the awards, I’ll be sure to publish my own picks. Because I’m way smarter than the Academy.

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life

Now then: rule changes. Note that on the list above, I’ve included eight movies. The especially astute among you will further note that eight is less than ten. Remember two years ago, when the Academy decided there would be ten nominees for Best Picture instead of the traditional five? The change benefited movies that, it’s safe to say, wouldn’t have made the cut on a five-film list. (Think The Blind Side, 127 Hours and District 9, to name a few.) Well last June, the Academy announced it was shaking up the process even further. The number of nominees will now fall somewhere between five and ten, and we won’t know the tally until the nominations are revealed.

Those of you familiar with Johnny Dangerously will understand if I pause at this point to quote Roman Maroni, who always had a colorful way of putting things.

Based on how many of the roughly 6,000 Academy members return their ballots and make selections in the Best Picture category, the accounting aces at PricewaterhouseCoopers will determine what percentage of first place votes a movie needs to earn in order to secure a nomination. According to the Academy’s press release on the topic, this new system means that the nominated films will more accurately reflect Academy members’ favorite movies. The downside is that because of the way the calculations work, a significant number of voters’ ballots will essentially be tossed out. It’s a system that favors consensus but means not every voting member will have their voice heard. For statistical nerds out there, Steve Pond of TheWrap.com is an expert in crunching Oscar numbers and has examined and explained the process in detail.

What this boils down to for schmucks like me is that predicting the Best Picture nominees just got a lot trickier. But schmucks we are, and predict we shall.

Count on The Artist and The Descendants, which have grabbed the lion’s share of the critics awards and each took home top Golden Globes recently (the former in the musical/comedy category, the latter for drama). The Help and Hugo are close to certain, and Midnight in Paris is probably in there too. After that, the real guesswork begins. Two movies with late December releases that were widely expected to be contenders are War Horse and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. But War Horse, despite strong reviews and good box office, has failed to gain traction with the industry. While cited by the Producers Guild of America and the American Cinema Editors, it went unnominated by the Writers Guild of America, the Directors Guild of America (which has been generous to Steven Spielberg over the years) and the American Society of Cinematographers. Those omissions hurt. Has War Horse been left out to pasture?

As for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, it was the last move of the year to screen for critics and guilds, with some of the season’s first voting critic circles convening before they’d seen it. The lack of recognition by the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild could be due to ballots being cast before the movie was seen. But mixed reviews and the same lack of guild support slowing down War Horse‘s chances indicate the movie just hasn’t caught on. There have been a smattering of nominations from this group or that, and it could factor into a couple of races further down, but Best Picture no longer seems in the cards.

The unlikely beneficiary of those two movies’ lackluster showings appears to be The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which in contrast to both, has scored big time with the guilds. It’s been nominated by the PGA, ACE, ACS and most surprisingly, the DGA and WGA. With all that support, its Oscar chances look better than anyone would have expected (and better than it probably deserves, but that’s another story). Then there’s The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick’s poetic rumination on life, death, the universe and really gorgeous swirls of color. It was admired by critics, and no doubt it has ardent supporters within the Academy. The question is whether it has enough to earn the necessary number of first place votes. Brad Pitt’s other 2011 effort, Moneyball, is a solid movie that garnered strong reviews and has one of the most acclaimed scripts of the year. It’s the kind of all-around admirable film that could absolutely find itself in the running.

An assured ten-picture field might have opened the conversation up to movies like The Ides of March, My Week with Marilyn, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Drive, or even some populist choices like Bridesmaids, Rango or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. (Don’t laugh; Potter was one of the year’s best-reviewed movies, and even within the industry a lot of people feel it deserves recognition as the closing chapter of the most financially successful franchise ever.)

War Horse could still muster the support it needs, while The Tree of Life may not have the necessary backing. Moneyball is a question mark too. But this is the list I’m going with.

BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Martin Scorsese – Hugo
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

This category has three sure things: Hazanavicius, Payne and Scorsese. Two spots remain, and a lot of people are in the mix for them. The affection for Midnight in Paris will probably carry Woody Allen, but I wouldn’t call him a lock. Although The Help is a safe bet for Best Picture, its director Tate Taylor has been largely ignored throughout the season. The film’s direction isn’t especially dynamic (not that it needed to be), so he’ll probably fall prey to bigger names and bolder visions. If War Horse misses in Best Picture, it will kill any chance Spielberg has…which I sense isn’t much at this point anyway. David Fincher, on the other hand, could benefit from the lovefest that has swarmed Dragon Tattoo.

If the Academy goes with Hazanavicius, Payne, Scorsese, Allen and Fincher, it will match the DGA’s nominees five-for-five. That rarely happens. In the last 25 years, it’s only happened three times (1998, 2005, 2009). When the two bodies diverge, the Academy often favors an auteur or an indie filmmaker. (Mulholland Drive‘s David Lynch, City of God‘s Fernando Meirelles, The Sweet Hereafter‘s Atom Egoyan and Red‘s Krzysztof Kieslowski are among those who scored Oscar nods but weren’t cited by the DGA.) This year, that could mean good news for Drive‘s Nicolas Winding Refn, who took the Best Director prize at the Cannes Film Festival last summer. But Drive is feeling more like a critic’s darling and less like a movie that’s connecting within Hollywood. The more likely nominee would be Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life. While the movie is divisive and it certainly isn’t perfect, Malick is a visionary filmmaker and one who has the admiration of many colleagues. Whatever the movie’s chances in the Best Picture race, I think it has a good chance of landing here.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Brad Pitt – Moneyball

With the assured presence of Clooney, Pitt and Dujardin, this category is shaping up to be a gathering of the Handsome Men’s Club. But as is usually the case, a number of strong candidates are left fishing for two available slots. Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar didn’t pan out as an awards magnet, but DiCaprio has plenty of admirers for his excellent performance and scored nominations from the Broadcast Film Critics Association, SAG and the Golden Globes. The Academy likes DiCaprio, so his chances are good. (Like anybody who writes about the Oscars, by the way, I shall proceed to repeatedly reference “the Academy” as though it were a monolithic entity absorbing the consciousness of its many thousand members into one aggregated voice).

I’d say three actors are realistically vying for the fifth slot. Michael Fassbender had a great year, with acclaimed performances in four movies. Several groups have nominated him for Shame, though he was overlooked by SAG. Still, plenty of actors are sure to admire his nakedness. No, not that nakedness. Well, yeah, I guess that nakedness too. But I mean more his emotional nakedness. Next is Gary Oldman, who took center stage for the first time in years with Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Fellow actors could feel that it’s time to pay tribute to one of the greats who has, amazingly, never been nominated. Still, the performance is so restrained and quiet. The Academy tends to favor flashier roles, and Oldman’s George Smiley is as buttoned-down as it gets. Then there’s Michael Shannon for the gripping indie film Take Shelter. Critics love the performance, and Shannon has the respect of his peers. But despite the September release, have enough voters made time to see it? He missed out on nominations from SAG, the Globes and the BFCA, which doesn’t bode well…but in 2009 he was ignored by the same groups and still scored a Supporting Actor nomination for Revolutionary Road. Can he do it again?

Woody Harrelson garnered ecstatic reviews as a self-destructive L.A. cop in Rampart, but it’s doubtful enough voters have seen the movie. SAG awarded a surprise nomination to Demián Bichir for his work as an immigrant father trying to provide for his teenage son in A Better Life, but again, the movie was probably too-little seen. SAG’s nominations don’t always match up with Academy’s, and Bichir – lacking name recognition and coming from  lower profile movie – seems the least likely to make Oscar’s cut. Ryan Gosling’s name keeps popping up as well, both for Drive and The Ides of March, but neither film is likely to earn him the necessary votes (and frankly, if he deserves a nomination for any of his work this year, I’d argue in favor of Crazy, Stupid, Love).

With DiCaprio and Fassbender vulnerable, this category is primed for a surprise or two.

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis – The Help
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn

While all the major races this year have the rare excitement factor of lacking clear frontrunners, some are more up for grabs than others, starting with this one. Streep, Davis and Williams are the locks, and surprisingly, it’s Williams who has by far captured the most critics awards to date, plus a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy (neither of which her movie really fits into, but that sort of loose categorization is nothing new).

In addition to these three, SAG nominated Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs and Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin. (Both films have yet to go into wide release, so for those unfamiliar with them, here are the Cliff’s Notes: in Nobbs, Close plays a woman passing as a male butler in 19th century Ireland. Swinton, meanwhile, portrays a mother whose son commits a Columbine-like high school attack.) Close was an Oscar darling in the 80’s, racking up five nominations between 1982 and 1988. She’s never won the award, and has found more success on television over the last decade. While Nobbs is a small film struggling for attention, it could be seen as a homecoming for Close, whose peers may want to welcome her back with a nomination. As for Swinton, she’s managed to maintain a firm presence on the awards circuit so far despite appearing in exactly the kind of independent film that so often gets lost in shuffle among higher-profile year-end releases. Her buoyancy bodes well. Both movies opened in December for brief qualifying runs, so voters would have had to catch the movies during those theatrical windows or else made time at home to watch the screeners. This is not an uncommon practice and it certainly doesn’t stand in the way of work being nominated, but can two such movies make their mark in the same race?

A number of worthy actresses are waiting in the wings should Close or Swinton falter. Charlize Theron gave a bold, biting performance in Young Adult, but the character may be too unlikable to earn enough support. Elizabeth Olsen’s acclaimed breakout as a young woman who escapes a cult in Martha Marcy May Marlene has its fans, though probably not enough for her to pull through. Ditto for Kirsten Dunst, who earned stellar reviews as a deeply depressed bride in Melancholia. She took Best Actress at the Cannes Film Festival, but Cannes acclaim only occasionally translates to Oscar heat, and when it does it’s usually fueled by more critics awards than Dunst has collected. Personally, I gotta give a shoutout to the preternaturally gifted Saoirse Ronan, who gave a knockout performance in Hanna that should have her firmly in the Best Actress discussion. Alas, she’s been completely left out, so no luck there. The last viable contender – and the one with the best chance of cracking the final list – is Rooney Mara as the iconic heroine Lisbeth Salander in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. If the movie catches fire throughout the Academy the way its guild support indicates it might, Mara could easily ride that wave. But I think the category will match the SAG slate of Close, Davis, Streep, Swinton and Williams.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh – My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks – Drive
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Plummer is in for sure. Brooks seems like a safe bet given that he and Plummer have split nearly all the awards given out so far. Although Brooks was a no-show on SAG’s list, it’s hard to imagine he won’t make the Academy’s cut given all the citations already under his belt.

Jonah Hill scored key nominations from SAG and the Golden Globes for his change-of-pace work in Moneyball, and most pundits are considering him a sure thing. I have my doubts. I think Hill could find himself in the same boat as Mila Kunis did last year for Black Swan. Despite nods from the BFCA, Globes and SAG, she was left off Oscar’s list. Like Kunis, Hill gives a good performance that allows him to stretch, but there’s nothing special about it beyond that. Voters may think an Oscar nomination is a little more than he deserves at this point.

Nick Nolte gives a moving performance in the underseen drama Warrior as a recovering alcoholic trying to reconcile with his grown sons after years of abuse that tore their family apart. The movie was well-received by critics and those who’ve seen it…but it doesn’t seem like many people have seen it. Then again, the movie came out way back in September, so they’ve had time. The SAG nomination has kept him visible, as have the frequent commercials for HBO’s new series Luck, in which Nolte stars. Lots of Academy members have HBO and have surely seen those spots. Plus, Nolte’s a survivor. Actors like that.

Max von Sydow garnered buzz in advance of Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close‘s release, but the movie has been such a nonstarter that it’s tough to gauge his chances. If the movie has a shot at any major nominations, he’s the best bet. But sentiment to honor a veteran who’s never won before may be siphoned off by Plummer.

Others in the mix are Viggo Mortensen for his dry, sly Sigmund Freud in A Dangerous Method; Patton Oswalt as Charlize Theron’s nerdy confidant in Young Adult (Oswalt has had audiences cracking up at various events throughout the season; never underestimate the effect that can have on voters); Armie Hammer, admired for his work as the Winklevii in last year’s The Social Network, got a SAG nod playing Hoover’s right-hand man (if you know what I mean, HOO-HA!) in J. Edgar; and Brad Pitt really deserves a nomination for his stern 1950’s father in The Tree of Life, but he’ll probably be honored solely for Moneyball.

There are a couple of blockbuster longshots,  like Alan Rickman for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, in which he capped off a decade of inscrutability and finally revealed the true colors and pain beneath the pallid visage of Severus Snape. There was also a lot of talk last summer around Andy Serkis and his motion-capture performance as the gifted chimp Caesar in Rise of the Planet of the Apes. A few critics groups have nominated Serkis, but the fact is that actors vote for actors, and they just aren’t ready to recognize motion capture. I don’t think Serkis should make the list this time anyway, but I did think he deserved it for his performance as Gollum in The Two Towers, and I wish the Academy had recognized this work he’s pioneered over the last decade by giving him a Special Achievement Oscar this year. But that ship sailed in November. Perhaps down the line…

I think von Sydow will just squeak by, while Branagh has landed on enough lists by now to seem like a good bet. Few of these performances really thrill me though, so I’d love to see a truly-didn’t-think-it-would-ever-happen surprise like Corey Stoll for Midnight in Paris (he played Ernest Hemingway) or Kevin Spacey or Jeremy Irons for the financial crisis drama Margin Call.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Shailene Woodley – The Descendants

Chastain has had an amazing breakout year, and has been honored by various critics groups for her individual performances in The Help, The Tree of Life and Take Shelter, while other groups have cited her for all three films plus The Debt, Coriolanus and Texas Killing Fields. Some have posited that she will split her votes between various films and wind up shut out of the race, but most agree that she’ll score most of her votes for The Help, in which she took a potentially one-dimensional ditz and infused her with levels of depth. As long as she gets nominated for something, I don’t really care what it is.

Melissa McCarthy seems primed for Bridesmaids recognition, but a word of caution: performances this purely comedic – and comedies this broad, in general –  are seldom favored by the Academy. Sure, the past 25 years are spotted with comparable (to varying degrees) nominees, including Joan Cusack for In & Out, Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny and Kevin Kline for A Fish Called Wanda (the latter two even won). But when it comes to comedy and the Academy, nothing is assured. McCarthy’s chances look good, bolstered by nominations from SAG, the BFCA and several critics groups (though not the Golden Globes). But if her name isn’t announced, don’t be too shocked.

If we go by the critics, The Descendants‘ Shailene Woodley would be a sure thing here. Tough to say whether or not the Academy will follow. Support for the movie overall could definitely carry her. And while the logic I used against Jonah Hill might seem applicable to Woodley as well – that she’s too young, or it’s too soon –  the Academy has a soft spot for young, emerging actresses. So whereas I likened Hill to Mila Kunis, Woodley may be more comparable to Hailee Steinfeld, nominated last year for True Grit. Then again, Woodley’s character isn’t nearly as colorful as Steinfeld’s, so…who knows how this will go.

Janet McTeer has done well on the circuit so far, joining Glenn Close with a gender-bending performance in Albert Nobbs. If enough voters have seen it, she could land here too. Vanessa Redgrave is said to be brilliant in Ralph Fiennes’ Shakespeare adaptation Coriolanus, but this is another case where the movie is unlikely to have been seen by enough people. Shame‘s Carey Mulligan is floating on the edge, and can’t be counted out completely if we consider that voters will have made time for that film based on all the buzz it generated. Her inclusion would be a surprise, albeit a pleasant one. In a move I still can’t wrap my head around, Academy voters saw fit a couple years ago to award Sandra Bullock an Oscar for The Blind Side; if Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close does make an impression on voters, Bullock’s fine performance could earn her a second nomination.

I’m giving Woodley a slight edge over McTeer, but what do I know?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Mike Mills – Beginners
Annie Mumalo & Kristen Wiig – Bridemaids
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
Tom McCarthy – Win Win

The screenwriting categories are often the place where admired movies that can’t quite gain a foothold in other high profile races get their pat on the back. Think Lars and the Real Girl, American Splendor, The Squid and the Whale and Do the Right Thing. This year, there are a number of such films that could fill out a category which is already likely to include Midnight in Paris, Bridesmaids and The Artist. Diablo Cody, who won this award for Juno a few years ago, could be back with her uncompromising comedy Young Adult. She did earn a WGA nod, but that’s never a reliable indicator since so many scripts fail to qualify for the WGA due to arcane regulations. (The Artist, for example, was left off the WGA list but is considered an Oscar shoo-in). There’s Margin Call, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Take Shelter, Beginners, Win Win and 50/50 (the latter two earned WGA nominations and have popped up consistently with critics groups), all of which could reasonably make the cut.

The Tree of Life is always a possibility, but might be seen more as a triumph of directing that writing. I mean, that ending sequence…even Sean Penn has said he didn’t know what the hell was going on, and he starred in it. (True, he calls the script “magnificent,” but voters aren’t judging the actual script; they’re judging what makes it to the screen.) Animated and foreign films frequently earn a spot in the screenplay races, and this year such chances rest with Rango and the Iranian drama A Separation, respectively. But Rango hasn’t been cited with a comparable nomination by any other group that I’ve seen. A Separation has fared a little better, but unless voters caught up with it in the final days of voting, I’d be surprised to see it slide in.

My gut is telling me that 50/50 is going to miss, but I’m not at all confident that I’m right, or of what will take that fifth spot if I am. I’m going out on a long limb with Beginners, knowing full well that said limb is likely to snap underneath me.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash  – The Descendants
Steven Zaillian – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tate Taylor – The Help
John Logan – Hugo
Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin – Moneyball

All five films above were nominated by the WGA, though the nod for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo took many by surprise. Since the Adapted category wasn’t gutted by the guild as badly as the Original category, it’s tough to guess whether Dragon Tattoo got in by default of sorts or if it’s a real contender. There only seem to be a few other realistic candidates. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (which was among the ineligible for  the WGA) could go either way; did voters find it too confusing, or did they think it effectively streamlined an intricate, dense novel? War Horse doesn’t feel like it can go the distance here, and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close remains a question mark. It doesn’t appear to have the support, but this is a movie that could turn out to surprise everyone.

I’m going with Dragon Tattoo, but it’s a toss-up with Tinker Tailor.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Adventures of Tintin
Cars 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Winnie the Pooh

Enough animated movies were released this year to qualify for a five-movie race. Nineteen films are in the mix, and it will be interesting to see if the nominees are all from the mainstream or if something more obscure muscles in, as was the case two years ago when The Secret of Kells had everyone asking, “What the hell is The Secret of Kells?”

The Adventures of Tintin made the list of eligible movies and seems a certain nominee…unless members of the animation branch don’t see motion capture as equatable to hand-drawn or computer-generated work. But I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t make it. Kung Fu Panda 2 is just as gorgeously animated as the first film, but felt a little flatter to me. Still, it dives deeper into some of the characters and manages to be more than just a rehash of the original. From what I’ve heard, the same can’t be said for Happy Feet Two. Although the original won this award in 2006, the sequel doesn’t seem to have registered. Then there’s Cars 2. Though a huge box office hit, it’s the most critically spanked movie in Pixar’s history. I didn’t think it was nearly the dud that so many called it, but yeah, it has problems that Pixar’s movies just don’t usually have. Still, the immaculate animation can’t be denied. If it misses the cut, it will be the first Pixar movie to do so since this category’s inception in 2001. Hard to imagine Pixar not having a horse in the race. I wonder – are animators from rival studios relishing a misstep by the great and mighty Pixar, or are they not thinking in such vindictive terms? The answer could hold they key to the movie’s nomination fate. I think it’s gonna make it, but I’m basing my guess more on the quality of the animation than the overall movie…which is probably a miscalculation on my part.

The only sure thing is Rango. So watch out for really any one of my guesses to be trumped by Arthur Christmas or a Kells-like surprise.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Guillaume Schiffman – The Artist
Jeff Cronenweth – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Robert Richardson – Hugo
Emmanuel Lubezki – The Tree of Life
Janusz Kaminski – War Horse

I’m so on the fence about War Horse. It missed with the American Society of Cinematographers, and the movie’s general lack of support from the guilds must be taken into account. But I just can’t write it off. I have a feeling that it could still pull through. If it doesn’t, or if Dragon Tattoo misses out (the other three are safe bets), the ASC’s fifth choice – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – could come in from the cold. Drive deserves to be here but probably won’t be, while Moneyball (shot by last year’s winner Wally Pfister) could be a surprise. It isn’t flashy, but it’s earned notices from critics and fellow cameramen. Other longshot possibilities might be The Descendants, Hanna, Melancholia, Anonymous and Midnight in Paris.

BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

The editing category usually consists of prestige movies that are also in the running for Best Picture, as well as perhaps a really well constructed action movie (The Bourne Ultimatum and The Matrix are past winners). I don’t know if The Descendants will really show up here, but admiration for the movie and its overall positioning in the field so far make a reasonable guess. The Social Network took the prize last year, and its editors re-teamed with David Fincher for Dragon Tattoo, which once again seems to have the guild support it needs. The editor’s guild was one of the few that recognized War Horse, and I could see it replacing The Descendants or Moneyball, but I suspect it will miss with the Academy. I may be in the minority thinking that The Tree of Life could be a surprise contender, but so be it. For a movie that goes in some unusual directions, the editing helps the film retain a shape that gives it forward momentum. Drive would be great to see, but it might be competing for votes with Dragon Tattoo.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Anonymous
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

The Harry Potter films have earned more nominations in this category than in any other. None have won yet, and while there weren’t many new locations in the final film, it’s obviously their last chance to recognize it. It could be omitted for being more of the same, but I’m banking on its inclusion. From a purely objective standpoint, Anonymous deserves to be here, but if voters feel the movie lacks narrative respectability, will they go for it? (It explores the idea that Shakespeare’s plays were written by someone else, and its critics were none too kind.) Who knows how voters think about these things, but I’m guessing they evaluate the work first and the film second. I’m not sure if Tinker Tailor can go the distance, but it’s earned some key nominations so far and has an understated elegance and lived-in feel.

This is a category that favors period pieces and fantasy, so examples of the former that could find their way in are Jane Eyre, War Horse or even The Help. A couple of years ago, Sherlock Holmes made the cut, so its nominated team could repeat with the sequel, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides has a shot as well (the second Pirates film earned a nomination back in 2006). And bridging the gap between period and fantasy is Midnight in Paris, so that’s a potential spoiler too.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
W.E.

Also a category that goes for period and fantasy films. Not that I’m totally confident of Anonymous getting in for Art Direction, but I’m even less confident here given that I see a broader slate of contenders in this race than I do for Art Direction. Still, I’m sticking with it. Madonna’s directorial debut W.E. was ripped by the critics, but the costumes look like just the kind of lavish threads the Academy loves. If The Tempest could get in last year, W.E. certainly could this year, and its nomination from the costume designers guild places it in the running.

But there are lots of fine feathered films jostling for position here, including Jane Eyre, My Week With Marilyn, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, A Dangerous Method and Midnight in Paris on the period end of the spectrum. Comic book adaptations Captain America: The First Avenger,  X-Men: First Class and Thor all have a shot, and I’d rank their chances in that order even though Captain America was the only one of the three ignored by the guild. Unintentionally campy mainstream entries like Red Riding Hood (which scored a guild nomination) or Immortals could show up, but I’d say Jane Eyre is the most likely to break through if any of my five picks are wrong. And surely a couple are.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Lay Your Head Down – Albert Nobbs (5)
Life’s a Happy Song – The Muppets (1)
The Living Proof – The Help (4)
Man or Muppet? – The Muppets (2)
Star Spangled Man – Captain America: The First Avenger (3)

39 songs – culled from 30 movies – are eligible for the award this year. A look at the list reveals a handful of movies that you probably haven’t heard of…unless maybe you worked on one of them. So the final list could include something unsung…though not literally, since, well…it’s a…it’s a song, so it has to be…sung. However, lacking the time to seek out and listen to all 39 options and therefore limiting myself to what I’m aware of, these are my predictions.

Under recently passed rules, no more than two songs from a single film can be nominated, so while I’d personally like to see “Pictures in My Head” from The Muppets make the list, I think it will be overshadowed by the two I’ve included. Elton John wrote songs for the animated film Gnomeo & Juliet, and one entitled “Hello Hello” has been nominated by a few critics groups as well as the Golden Globes. A known entity and former winner like Elton could wind up nominated. So could Zooey Deschanel, who contributed songs to Winnie the Pooh. Of the two that are eligible, “So Long” could make it in. Madonna won a Golden Globe for “Masterpiece” from her film W.E., but the song didn’t qualify for the Oscar.

As the press release linked above indicates, songs must be substantially integrated into the film or be the first music cue during the end credits in order to qualify. These 39 songs have obviously met that benchmark, but sometimes appearing over the end credits can be a detriment nonetheless. Also, the voting is scored in a particular way such that there’s no guarantee a full slate of five songs will be nominated. There could be as few as two, or it’s possible the category could be omitted altogether. There’s a strong enough slate (by Oscar’s historical standards, at least) to ensure the category will be included this year, but as there’s no way to know how many songs will make it, I’ve ranked them in the order I think they’re likely to show up.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Ludovic Bource – The Artist
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alexandre Desplat – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Howard Shore – Hugo
John Williams – War Horse

Despite the questionable presence of War Horse in other races, respect for John Williams is likely to carry the movie handily into this category. Many are betting he’ll make it for The Adventures of Tintin as well. Personally I felt the relentless Tintin score was the equivalent of being bludgeoned over the head with a giant cartoon hammer for the movie’s entire running time, not a second of which seemed to go unscored. I’m probably letting my own reaction cloud my better judgement, but I’m leaving the movie off.

I don’t have full confidence in any of these selections except The Artist, which is a slam dunk. (In fact, we can call that one for the eventual win right now.) Hugo could come up short, but I’m betting on it getting caught up in an overall sweep. Harry Potter is even less certain, but Alexandre Desplat has done a really nice job on these final two installments, and here is a last chance to recognize the series’ music. Desplat has other chances as well, with The Ides of March a possible option for recognition. Jane Eyre and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy both feature well-received scores, either of which could find a place on the final list. The Golden Globes list included the W.E. score by Abel Korzeniowski, but I’ve neither heard it nor heard much about it.

I’d love to see the Academy get adventurous and nominate The Chemical Brothers’ propulsive score to Hanna, but evidence over the last few years suggests that the music branch exhausted all their adventurous spirit on giving Oscars to Eminem in 2002 and Three 6 Mafia in 2005 (sing it with me everyone…).

Excerpts from some of these scores are available courtesy of The Playlist‘s look back at the best soundtracks of the year.

BEST MAKEUP
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Iron Lady

The makeup branch has already narrowed the field of contenders down to seven movies, from which three will be chosen. In addition to those above, there’s The Artist, Hugo, Anonymous and Albert Nobbs. You’d think the limited field would make predicting easier, but this could be parsed out in a number of ways. Personally, I’m not sure what The Artist or Anonymous are doing here. From what I can tell, the makeup work consists mainly of creating era-appropriate hairstyles and applying facial hair. Fairly run-of-the-mill stuff. Ditto for Hugo, although the few sequences involving filmmaker George Méliès making his movies do feature some more elaborate and outwardly creative work. Still, the fact that The Artist and Hugo are Best Picture contenders sure to be recognized across a variety of categories means either or both could be swept in here.

No Harry Potter movie has been nominated for makeup before, but it’s the only one of the seven contenders that features “fantasy” work, which is almost always represented. Between Voldemort, a bankful of goblins and all the battle wounds, I think it will get in. When it comes to more realistic makeup, I think the aging work done in The Iron Lady will trump the efforts that make Glenn Close look masculine in Albert Nobbs (though I haven’t seen either film and can’t speak to the breadth or quality of work). Finally, there’s Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life, which I know nothing about other than it being a biopic of French singer Serge Gainsbourg. I’m including it among my final three because it’s such an obscure selection, which leads me to think it must have a lot of support to have made it past higher profile movies.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life

As with the makeup race, the visual effects contenders have already been narrowed down. The final five will be chosen from a list of ten featuring the five I’m predicting, along with Captain America: The First Avenger, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, X-Men: First Class, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol and the suspiciously sans-colon-in-title Real Steel. Say what you want about the Transformers movies, but their technical achievements are always superb. The first movie should have won this award, so I can only assume that too many Academy members felt a refusal to vote for it could be the difference between getting into heaven or going to hell. The second film wasn’t even nominated, but this third entry was better received by critics and audiences (which is hardly saying much), and c’mon – the work is undeniably impressive. I think it will make it.

The Tree of Life‘s effects are as old school in technique as they are in substance, but goddamn if they aren’t pretty to look at. It’s possible that branch members will appreciate the throwback in a world dominated by computer graphics (though to be fair, the movie does include some CGI). Current industry leaders may not be able to resist an opportunity to honor one of the pioneers, Douglas Trumbull, whose credits include 2001: A Space Odyssey, Close Encounters of the Third Kind and Blade Runner – movies that, along with Star Wars, probably inspired most of them to enter the field in the first place. Adding to its chances is the fact that the effects are featured front and center – they’re pretty much all you’re looking at for a good 20 minutes of the movie.

I can’t recall anything in Hugo that was especially impressive from an effects standpoint, but it’s the only certain Best Picture nominee that features effects prominently, and usually one such film makes the cut. Of the remaining five, the most likely spoilers are Captain America and Mission: Impossible. The former’s most notable achievement is making the impossibly buff Chris Evans look as scrawny as his 12 year-old self. (Seriously…I knew Chris Evans when he was 12, and that’s exactly what he looked like.) The result is good, but not quite seamless…and since it builds on work seen a few years ago in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, it might not be able to push through. As for Mission: Impossible, the effects are more subtle, which always means an uphill battle. But the film has been received with high praise from critics and audiences, and the work is solid. It could happen. I don’t see X-Men or Real Steel advancing, and although each of the previous Pirates movies has been nominated, I don’t remember anything in this one as elaborate or impressive as the first film’s skeleton pirates or the second and third films’ Davy Jones.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Rango
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

BEST SOUND MIXING
Hanna
Hugo
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse

I always preface talk of sound awards by pointing out that I have no understanding of what really goes into creating sound for film, nor distinguishing between great, good or poor sound. As for the difference between sound editing and sound mixing, I’ve never been able to keep that straight either. For the curious among you, this short article from The Hollywood Reporter offers explanations of the two disciplines from some of its practitioners. So all of that said, my predictions in these two categories are always crapshoots where a couple of things are likely to stick. I’m relying on instinct; a review of past nominees; the wisdom of Gerard Kennedy, who covers below-the-line categories for the great Oscar website In Contention; and nominations from both The Cinema Audio Society and the Motion Picture Sound Editors.

I could list out other options that might score a nomination if any of those above miss, but there are so many possible contenders it seems pointless. So I’ll do it up Wheel of Fortune style. For the final puzzle on Wheel of Fortune, the contestant picks a few letters and then after seeing which ones turn up in the clue, they get to pick a few more. So here are four more movies that I would say have a good shot of showing up in one or both categories: The Adventures of Tintin, Cars 2, Drive and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Vanna, how’d I do?

x

And so now we wait. As usual, I remain woefully uninformed in the areas of documentaries, foreign language films and short subjects…but do you really want to read any more of this crap? Tomorrow morning at the ungodly time of 5:38 PST, Academy president Tom Sherak and actress Jennifer Lawrence – past Best Actress nominee and future Hunger Games heroine – will announce the nominees. I’m sure you’d be tossing and turning tonight with anticipation, so I’m glad I was able to provide this commentary to put you to sleep. Sweet dreams…I leave you with the first Oscar promo of the season, which debuted a few weeks ago. They’re not wasting any time…

Lots of people talking about the Oscars are looking to February and discussing what will win, but I’d like to roll things back a little and actually let the nominations get announced before I start predicting the winners. It must seem awfully old-fashioned of me in this day and age, when so many awards are handed out before the Oscar nominations are even announced that the winners already seem like foregone conclusions. If you listen to the professionals, the endgame for this season has already been inscribed. The Social Network. David Fincher. Colin Firth. Natalie Portman. Christian Bale. Melissa Leo. Toy Story 3.

Yeah, it’ll probably look something like that. But humor me anyway. Since it has apparently become so boring to predict the winners, let’s a least relish the opportunity to predict the nominees – the one part of the process that can still offer some surprises. The winners may already be engraved in gold, but two things can always be expected at this stage: each category has a few slots up for grabs, and some great work is bound to go un-nominated. I for one don’t want to miss the opportunity to cry foul, so let’s not close the book on the 2010 award season before we’ve had a chance to milk it for all we can.

So here we go. My predictions, my personal picks and a little bit of commentary along the way.

Okay, a large amount of commentary along the way.

I should point out that as always, despite a solid effort, not being a Los Angeles-based professional in this game means there are a handful of movies I haven’t seen which might have impacted my personal choices, mostly in the below-the-line categories. Among this year’s possibly-award-friendly crop that I haven’t yet taken in: Biutiful, Another Year, Casino Jack, Megamind, Made in Dagenham, Four Lions, Love and Other Drugs, TRON: Legacy, The Tempest, Burlesque and Country Strong.

BEST PICTURE
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Early on I thought Black Swan would be too polarizing to get a Picture nomination, but it has been a constant presence in the precursor awards and no longer seems like a risky bet at all. I wonder if it would have as good a chance with only five slots. I think a five-film race would likely have been The Fighter, Inception, The King’s Speech, The Social Network and True Grit. I feel somewhat guilty playing into a narrative that suggests two tiers of nominees, but it’s hard not to go there.

Of this list, I’d say The Town and Winter’s Bone are the most vulnerable. The Town has reportedly done quite well with Academy members and it’s managed to hold its ground throughout the awards season thus far, which bodes well for its inclusion. Winter’s Bone, which fills this year’s token slot for the Little Indie That Could, has also made a strong showing thanks to the film critics associations and ten best lists that kept it alive at year’s end, long after its debut at Sundance. Acting and screenwriting nominations are likely, but I’m not sure if it will have enough support from the Academy-at-large to crack the top ten. If it doesn’t, 127 Hours is waiting in the wings to take its place. And while we haven’t been looking at a ten-film race for very long, last year offered at least one big surprise in the nomination for The Blind Side. A few more years of this will tell if we should always expect something unexpected; if we should, keep an eye out for Shutter Island and The Ghost Writer.

Personal Picks: Black Swan, Blue Valentine, The Fighter, The Ghost Writer, Inception, The King’s Speech, Never Let Me Go, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Christopher Nolan – Inception
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
David Fincher – The Social Network
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – True Grit

Where I have the Coen Brothers, the Director’s Guild of America nominated David O. Russell for The Fighter. I wasn’t sure what to do there. I went this way out of a sense that The Fighter may come off as more of an actor’s movie than a director’s movie, however much O. Russell is (of course) responsible for the movie being as good as it is. The Coens have become Academy favorites, and their stamp can be felt more on True Grit than O. Russell’s can on The Fighter – not a criticism; just an observation. But this could go either way.

I could also see Tom Hooper being overlooked despite the popularity of The King’s Speech. Hooper isn’t a big name (not that other directors, as the ones doing the voting, would care about that), plus for all its strengths, The King’s Speech doesn’t necessarily come across as a work of bold directorial vision the way Black Swan or Inception do. Still, I think it’s highly unlikely Hooper would be overlooked (even if he still hasn’t quite re-entered my good graces after his obnoxiously excessive use of dutch angles in HBO’s John Adams miniseries). And then there’s Christopher Nolan, who seems a lock for Inception but was snubbed in 2008 for The Dark Knight. Such a slight is unlikely to happen again, but maybe Nolan just leaves Academy members cold (he earned DGA nominations for both Memento and Knight, but has yet to earn an Oscar nod for Directing). With David O. Russell and the Coens vying for that fifth spot, and Danny Boyle’s impressive work on 127 Hours still in the ether, an out-of-left-field surprise seems unlikely. But I can’t say I’d be shocked if Roman Polanski were to sneak in for The Ghost Writer, an admired movie by an admired filmmaker.

Personal: Boyle, Aronofsky, Nolan, Polanski, Fincher

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine

We have two sure things here in Firth and Franco. Beyond that, I think the field is somewhat open. Or at least, I can see vulnerabilities in each of the other frontrunners.  Let’s start with Jesse Eisenberg. I’m a big fan of his, so I’ve been pleased to see his strong showing in the season so far. But it’s surprised me too. His unique, high-strung energy and natural fast-paced speech rhythms can make it seem like he’s doing the same thing from film to film, which of course he isn’t. Additionally, the character he plays is not all that likable or sympathetic, which could be a factor voters consider. I think back a few years to Emile Hirsch’s sensational performance in Into the Wild, which some thought may have missed out on an Oscar nomination because voters didn’t like the character, saw him as too selfish, etc. Who knows if that’s true, and obviously it shouldn’t make a difference anyway, but that’s the Oscars for you. If these sorts of things matter, it could be a strike against Eisenberg. On the other hand, he’s part of a film that has much broader support than Into the Wild did; he’s been nominated for the four major pre-Academy prizes: the Golden Globe, the Broadcast Film Critics Association award, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) award and the Screen Actor’s Guild award (Hirsch scored two of those four); and he’s also been named by quite a few more critics organizations than Hirsch was, including two that are among the more high-profile: the National Board of Review and the National Society of Film Critics (both of which skip right to naming a winner rather than having nominations). So things do look good for Eisenberg, but I’d say a snub is not out of the question.

Next, Jeff Bridges. Last year’s winner of this award will probably be back in the race, especially given the popularity True Grit seems to be enjoying with viewers in and out of the Academy. But while Bridges is a hoot in the role, is it really seen as one of the best performances of the year? I could see him getting squeezed out. As for Ryan Gosling, I worry that I’m letting my personal feelings cloud my judgment by including him. Not that he’s a longshot; he’s firmly in the running for a nomination. But Blue Valentine‘s unflinching look at a troubled marriage may be more than voters want to put themselves through. Still, actors vote for actors, and given the buzz out of Sundance around the film’s central performances – not to mention the controversy over the rating – I have to think people would look to see what the fuss was about. And I have to think they’d be pretty floored. Although neither of the film’s stars were nominated for a SAG award, the movie was a late release and SAG voters may not have had the chance to see it in time. I’m hoping the extra month or so will have allowed them to rectify that.

If any one of these guys is overlooked, a likely replacement is Robert Duvall for Get Low. I struggled with whether or not to include him. He has BFCA and SAG nominations in his favor, plus he’s Robert friggin’ Duvall. People love him. But have they seen the film? Casting a slightly wider net, the popularity of The Fighter could sweep Mark Wahlberg into the race, but his performance is overshadowed by the more colorful ones around him. He does a fine job, but I don’t see him breaking through. Aaron Eckhart has earned praise for his role as a grieving father in Rabbit Hole, but the award attention so far has all been around Nicole Kidman.

The biggest question mark for Best Actor has to be Javier Bardem in Biutiful. Word is that he went to hell and back for this role and gives an incredibly powerful performance, yet it’s been ignored all season long. Unfortunately, Biutiful has yet to open in San Francisco, and my obsession with seeing as many Oscar-potential movies as possible before the nominations did not extend to taking an L.A. day-trip. You gotta draw the line somewhere, I guess. I hear the film is pretty bleak, so it may be another one that voters shy away from. Then again, fellow actors like Sean Penn, Ryan Gosling, Josh Brolin and Ben Affleck have sung Bardem’s praises, and Julia Roberts hosted a screening to drum up support. It wouldn’t be the first time Bardem has had some help. Back in 2000, when he was barely known to American audiences, several Hollywood stars (I want to say Jack Nicholson and Winona Ryder were among the champions, but I can’t recall for sure) tried to draw attention to his performance in Before Night Falls. It paid off; he earned his first nomination. Can lightning strike twice? One glimmer of hope for Bardem is that he was nominated last week for a BAFTA award. Oscar voting had already closed by then, so the news couldn’t spur any undecided Academy members into action. But there is some overlap between the BAFTA and Academy membership, so perhaps his nomination suggests a growing awareness of the film and his work.

Personal: Eisenberg, Firth, Franco, Paul Giamatti (Barney’s Version), Gosling

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Annette Bening and Julianne Moore have been pegged for nominations ever since The Kids Are All Right played at Sundance last year. But as awards season got underway, Moore found herself sitting on the sidelines while Bening not only got all the accolades, but was heralded the frontrunner. I’m not quite sure why Moore has been so unjustly overlooked, any more than I understand why Bening has been so celebrated. She’s great in the movie, but honestly her character is a variation on others we’ve seen her play before, and I actually felt her character was less interesting than Moore’s. Still, Bening’s nomination is a given; we’ll see if the Academy surprises us by honoring Moore as well. Either way, I think it’s safe to say that Bening’s frontrunner status has been eclipsed by Natalie Portman. But that’s a topic for a later post.

Jennifer Lawrence, the young breakthrough star of Winter’s Bone, has been nominated for just about every award possible, so she’s a safe bet, and Nicole Kidman is likely, though I wouldn’t say a lock. Michelle Williams is in the same boat as Ryan Gosling. In a just world she would be a sure thing, but it could go either way.

Who is poised to sneak in should any of these ladies fail to make the cut? Well, there’s Moore of course. Hilary Swank scored a surprise SAG nomination for Conviction, after being ignored by every other group. Swank did a fine job in the film, but I don’t think the performance merits award attention. Maybe SAG members couldn’t resist another Bening-Swank match-up. (Both of Swank’s Oscar wins for Best Actress came with Bening having been her strongest competition.) Swank’s SAG nomination was even stranger when considering that her co-star Sam Rockwell was not nominated. His performance had Oscar buzz for months in advance, and as usual the actor didn’t disappoint. He did get a few nominations along the way, but the positive word of mouth hasn’t amounted to much.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo‘s Swedish star Noomi Rapace has been mentioned, but I don’t think it will happen. A tougher call to make is Lesley Manville, the British actress who’s earned raves for her role in Mike Leigh’s Another Year. The Academy has been kind to Leigh’s films, but Manville doesn’t seem to have caught on. Though she has definite spoiler potential, I don’t feel confident in her chances. And there seems to be differing views on whether she should be in the Lead or Supporting category…a problem that also affects True Grit‘s Hailee Steinfeld, who I’ll talk about later since I believe she’ll be nominated in the Supporting category (though I definitely see her as a lead).

Personal: Lawrence, Carey Mulligan (Never Let Me Go), Portman, Steinfeld, Williams

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Matt Damon – True Grit
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Almost always one of the toughest categories in terms of just not having enough room for all the worthy performances. My  against-the-grain prediction here is Damon. Including him is foolhardy given that there’s zero precedent in the season thus far. Which I just can’t wrap my head around. Damon is so damn good in this movie, and brings more depth to the part than I was expecting, having heard ahead of seeing it that he was primarily comic relief and that his part was really small…neither of which is true. I find it hugely surprising that he has been virtually shut out of the race thus far, and while it may be my personal appreciation of the performance overwhelming my good sense, I believe he stands an excellent chance of surprising everyone. If people are loving True Grit, how can Damon not be a huge part of the reason for it? And if voters fill the movie out in lots of other categories – which it seems likely they will – I just can’t imagine them not citing Damon too. Hell, if he got nominated last year for Invictus, this deserves to be a slam dunk.

The other risky call here – though much less so than Damon – is Jeremy Renner, a Best Actor nominee last year for The Hurt Locker. I couldn’t decide whether to go with him or with John Hawkes’ terrific performance in Winter’s Bone. Both have done well in the precursor awards, but neither well enough to be considered sure things. They each earned SAG nominations, but Hawkes missed out on both the Golden Globes and BFCA awards, while Renner scored both. That’s why I’m going with him, but it took me a while to commit. And hey, maybe they’ll both make it if I’m wrong about Damon.

Also in the mix – indeed, a highly possible spoiler – is Andrew Garfield, excellent as the moral center of The Social Network. Many consider him to be a lock, but I worry that his chances have faded somewhat and that voters are more focused on Eisenberg. Garfield’s co-star Armie Hammer, who superbly embodied the Winklevoss twins (while actually only embodying one of them, if we want to get technical), also deserves to be in the running. Unfortunately the field is just too crowded. But Armie will be okay; he’s just been cast opposite Leonardo DiCaprio in Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar Hoover biopic. Earlier I mentioned Sam Rockwell, who has been relegated to a distant longshot at this point, and I’d be remiss not to mention two others who were excellent in a film that has been unjustly overlooked due to an ill-advised release strategy: Ed Harris and Colin Farrell in The Way Back. Peter Weir’s first movie in seven years, it was quietly released late in December for a one-week qualifying run in Los Angeles, and just went into wider release last Friday. That’s no way to handle a movie from so illustrious a filmmaker.

Personal: Bale, Damon, Garfield, Hawkes, Ruffalo

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

So let’s talk about The Steinfeld Problem. As pointed out above, I clearly see her as a lead and believe she deserves to be nominated as such. The studio is campaigning her in the Supporting category, and most of the awards and nominations she’s received so far (and she’s received many) have placed her there. But Oscar voters don’t always follow the campaigning, and from what I’ve read, many are putting her down for Best Actress. It could happen. In 2008, Kate Winslet was promoted for Best Actress in Revolutionary Road and Best Supporting Actress for The Reader, but Academy voters chose to nominate her as a lead for the latter. In 2003, young actress Keisha Castle-Hughes was campaigned as a Supporting Actress for Whale Rider, but earned a surprise nomination in the Best Actress race. Which way will Steinfeld go? While she’ll surely earn a lot of votes in both categories, I think the Best Actress field is stronger than Supporting Actress, so if for no other reason than that, I suspect more will stick with Supporting Actress. Plus, those who want her to go all the way know she’ll stand a better chance of winning if she’s in the Supporting race. Kristopher Tapley, who runs the great Oscar website In Contention, reported on a conversation he had with True Grit producer Scott Rudin, who explained his reasons for Steinfeld being in the Supporting category. Tapley disagrees, and both make interesting cases. We’ve already established which side I’m on, and I agree with the point that True Grit is ultimately Mattie’s story, not Rooster’s…just one of the reasons Best Actress is where she belongs.

Moving on, I’ve included Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom, but I’m not confident that enough voters have seen the film. She’s made an impressive showing in the season to date, including BFCA and Golden Globe nominations, but she has no name recognition in Hollywood, which could hurt her given the film’s low profile. Still, I couldn’t think of anyone who seemed any more logical. Mila Kunis stands a chance for Black Swan, bolstered by the Golden Globe/BFCA/SAG trifecta. But I just don’t see the Academy nominating Kunis. Maybe it’s my own opinion that there’s nothing award-worthy about the performance (not to say Kunis doesn’t do a great job). Or maybe it’s the sense that she hasn’t quite earned her stripes yet (which wouldn’t matter in the case of newcomers like Jennifer Lawrence or Steinfeld, who give such knockout performances. Kunis’ work just doesn’t compare). But maybe I’m wrong. Her co-star Barbara Hershey is also a longshot candidate, but I think her part is too small to get her in. Lesley Manville, as mentioned in the Best Actress section, could show up here instead, and it’s even possible that Julianne Moore could land here, though that would be pretty unexpected at this point. Other names are floating on the outskirts – Dianne Wiest for Rabbit Hole, Olivia Williams for The Ghost Writer – but they seem like distant shots. I’ll stick with Weaver.

Personal: Adams, Marion Cotillard (Inception), Greta Gerwig (Greenberg), Leo, Rosamund Pike (Barney’s Version)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan – Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John McLaughlin
The Fighter – Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson
Inception – Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right – Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg
The King’s Speech – David Seidler

It disappoints me to think that Black Swan will make the cut here since the screenplay is clearly the film’s weak link. It’s that much more a testament to Darren Aronofsky’s gifts as a filmmaker that the movie is so strong when its script is so “meh.” But with a lack of other strong contenders – or a lack of attention being paid to a broader range of contenders, I should say – I’m afraid it will likely score a spot. That same narrow scope will probably aid The Fighter as well, which is at least a good, solid script if not really one of the year’s very best.

Mike Leigh is always a possibility in this category, though I don’t get the sense that Another Year has extended its reach beyond being a critic’s darling. I could see Derek Cianfrance’s Blue Valentine sneaking in, which would be a pleasant and much deserved surprise, but I’m not holding my breath. The Writer’s Guild of America nominated the indie dramedy Please Give, but the guild is not the best barometer for the Oscars since its rules render so many would-be contenders ineligible. (A film has to be produced according to certain WGA guidelines in order to be qualify.) In fact, the first two films mentioned in this paragraph – along with The King’s Speech – were left out of consideration for this reason. With all three back in the running, I don’t see Please Give making the cut.

Personal: Animal Kingdom, Blue Valentine, Cyrus, Inception, The King’s Speech

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours – Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 – Michael Arndt
True Grit – Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
Winter’s Bone – Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

This list looks solid and safe. If anything is vulnerable I’d say it’s 127 Hours, which seems to have faded somewhat from the general conversation (James Franco’s performance notwithstanding). Other worthy contenders that could slide in include The Ghost Writer, Rabbit Hole and The Town (which, along with I Love You, Phillip Morris, earned WGA nominations…likely  attributable to Toy Story 3 and Winter’s Bone being cockblocked by the guild).

Personal: Same

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3

I only recently caught Despicable Me, and was less impressed than I expected to be given all the acclaim and box office success. It was cute, but not much more. People seemed to love it though, and with Toy Story 3 locked in and How to Train Your Dragon nearly as certain, I’m guessing Tangled and The Illusionist will miss out. But maybe there’ll be an obscure shocker. Last year, nobody saw The Secret of Kells coming. It’s too bad that once again there will only be three nominees. There were 15 eligible films, and the rules state that only when there are a minimum of 16 can there be five nominees (at least 8 are required for the category to exist at all).

Personal: How to Train Your Dragon, Tangled, Toy Story 3

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Matthew Libatique – Black Swan
Wally Pfister – Inception
Jeff Cronenweth – The Social Network
Robert Richardson – Shutter Island
Roger Deakins – True Grit

Black Swan, Inception and True Grit are the sure bets here. Jostling for the remaining two spots are a handful of great contenders. The King’s Speech and The Social Network rounded out the American Society of Cinematographer’s list, though as is always the case with the guilds, there is rarely a complete match-up. I’m going with Shutter Island, but 127 Hours stands a good chance too. And if there are a few categories where The Way Back may actually be on voters’ radar, this could be one.

Personal: Black Swan, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Inception, Shutter Island, True Grit

BEST FILM EDITING
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Personal: Black Swan, Inception, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, The Social Network, The Town

BEST ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
TRON: Legacy

Personal: Get Low, The Ghost Writer, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Inception, Shutter Island

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Personal: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Shutter Island, The Tempest, The Wolfman (I haven’t actually seen The Tempest, but just based on some photos I can clearly see it deserves to be here.)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
I See the Light – Tangled
If I Rise – 127 Hours
Shine – Waiting for Superman
We Belong Together – Toy Story 3
You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me – Burlesque

Honestly, I haven’t seen a single movie this year with an original song that left an impression on me. The five songs above have been the most oft mentioned in the season so far, so I’ll go with them. There are a couple of other songs from Burlesque that could conceivably make the cut, although “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” is apparently Cher’s big number, so I’m sure that will carry some weight. Tunes from Country Strong and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader have been mentioned too, so perhaps one of them will make it in. Also, Eddie Vedder has a song from Eat Pray Love in the mix. I haven’t heard it, but considering that the Academy owes Vedder bigtime after snubbing his Into the Wild contributions back in ’07, maybe they can try to make it up to him now.

Personal: No opinion

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
A.R. Rahman – 127 Hours
Danny Elfman – Alice in Wonderland
Hans Zimmer – Inception
Alexandre Desplat – The King’s Speech
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – The Social Network

True Grit and Black Swan might have fared a chance here, but both were deemed ineligible due to the large percentage of pre-exisiting music used in the films. I can’t speak to that in the case of True Grit, but certainly Black Swan‘s score is largely built around Tchaikovsy’s Swan Lake. I hope Reznor and Ross make the cut. They’re considered frontrunners, and yet the music branch of the Academy is known for making some tone deaf decisions lately. I have a sneaking suspicion that Reznor and Ross’ outsider status could hurt their chances. Hopefully I’m imagining things.

Personal: The Ghost Writer (Alexandre Desplat), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Desplat), Inception, Never Let Me Go (Rachel Portman), The Social Network

BEST MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland
Barney’s Version
The Wolfman

The Makeup branch works differently than most other branches when it comes to voting, in that the list of contenders has already been whittled down to seven. These are the three I suspect will make the cut (Barney’s Version features nicely done aging makeup, something which often finds a place in the final three.) The remaining possibilities are The Fighter, True Grit, The Way Back and Jonah Hex.

Personal: Alice in Wonderland, Barney’s Version, The Way Back

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
Iron Man 2
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
TRON: Legacy

The Visual Effects branch also has preliminary rounds, but for the first time this year, five nominees will be selected from the list of seven, rather than the usual three. Given how much movies today use and rely on visual effects work, it’s nice to see that more films will be recognized…though I can’t quite understand the logic of sticking with the process as it’s been, seeing as only two films from the “semi-finals” will be omitted. The other two contenders this time around are Scott Pilgrim vs. the World and Hereafter. My memory of Scott Pilgrim is that the effects were perfectly fine, but not really award-caliber. Hereafter features a stunning tsunami sequence that is certainly worthy of recognition, but I’m not sure it’s enough to justify nominating the film. Alice in Wonderland‘s effects were inconsistent, but I think they’ll win out over Scott Pilgrim and Hereafter. I would like to have seen The Social Network in the running, for the incredibly impressive CGI of the Winklevii (which more than makes up for the overdone, digitally inserted cold breath), but Social didn’t even make the branch’s preliminary list of 15. Nor did Black Swan, which I’d say was also worthy of consideration. But Alice notwithstanding, and without having seen TRON yet, this looks like a good list.

Personal: Black Swan, Inception, Iron Man 2, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, The Social Network

BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Swan
Inception
Iron Man 2
Toy Story 3
True Grit

BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit

This is always a shot in the dark for me, as I never have and likely never will – no matter how many cool DVD special features on sound I watch – understand these two categories. To me, what should be honored – which I don’t think these two categories do, exactly – is overall sound design. How is sound used in the film? What impact does it have? How does it contribute to the experience of the movie? Sound mixing and sound editing obviously contribute to that, but I think I understand enough to know that neither covers the overall sonic experience of the film. I’m making the picks above based on a) instinct, b) the nominations by the Cinema Audio Society and Motion Picture Sound Editors and c) by looking at the nominees in years past and trying to extract some sort of logic from them. We’ll see how I do. The King’s Speech could certainly find a place on one or both of these lists, as could action movies like TRON: Legacy, Unstoppable, Salt or Red. Musicals and animated films also tend to do well here, so perhaps Burlesque, How to Train Your Dragon or Tangled – which combines both – could show up.

Personal: If the category worked the way I, in my infinite ignorance, think it should, I’d be citing Black Swan, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Inception, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World and…ummm…maybe…I don’t know, lemme get back to you.

That’s as far as I can go. Unfortunately my intake of documentaries and foreign language films is embarrassingly paltry, and I know nothing of the contenders for the short film awards. So I’ll end with this point, to bring it all full circle: the awards pundits had pretty much declared The Social Network the winner of Best Picture, but guess what movie didn’t win the prize on Saturday night from the Producer’s Guild of America? The PGA went with The King’s Speech. Does that mean Speech is now a lock for the Oscar? No. Sometimes the PGA’s pick goes on to win the Oscar, sometimes it doesn’t. All it means is that a lot can happen in a month. Just ask Eddie Murphy, or the producers of Brokeback Mountain.

This thing can’t be over yet; it hasn’t even started.

On the other hand, nobody likes this movie except for 13 year-old boys and Michael Bay, so that might hurt its chances, paving the way for District 9.

Personal: Avatar, District 9, Where the Wild Things Are

BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Up

Personal: 9, Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Star Trek

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

Personal: 9, Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Star Trek (same as above, since I know nothing about sound to begin with)

xx xx